Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 292054
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

STRATUS CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT MORE THAN EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA...WHICH IN TURN HAVE ALLOWED SFC TEMPS TO RISE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS. RAINFALL REMAINS CONFINED TO WESTERN
SD WITH JUST A FEW VERY ISO LIGHT SHOWERS EAST OF THE MISSOURI.
MODELS STILL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE SFC LOW
OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING IT NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST SD BY TUESDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT...MOST OF THE RAINFALL
WILL BE OVER WESTERN SD. THE INTERESTING DETAILS LIE IN THE
FORECAST FOR TOMORROW IN REGARDS TO INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER.
THIS IS WHERE THE HI RES MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS
TO CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER SOUTHEAST SD BASED ON WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING. ALTHOUGH...IT
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. IF AREAS FURTHER NORTH SEE ANY
BREAKS IN CLOUDS THEN DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR. REGARDLESS...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO GET GOING OVER EASTERN SD COULD BE CAPABLE
OF A SMALL TORNADO THREAT. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY THOUGH WHERE
THE GREATEST INSTABILITY SETS UP...WHICH NOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
SOUTHEAST SD BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOUD COVER TRENDS. WINDS
WILL BE RATHER STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND COULD BE
LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN PLACES. FAVORED
AREA FOR THIS THOUGH LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. WILL LEAVE
FOR OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO CONSIDER. SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING DRYING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE MODELS SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AXIS RIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL US TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ACROSS OUR CWA WILL BRING A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE RIGHT NEAR NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE MODELS THEN SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN CANADA DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY ALONG WITH
BREEZY/WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER AND
MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING
WITH CLEARING SKIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
20S TO THE LOWER 30S...THERE COULD BE SOME FROST FORMATION.
OTHERWISE...THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
TRANSITIONING TO LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH LARGE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL PUT US IN A
DRY PATTERN WITH GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN SD WILL SLOWLY
MOVE/DEVELOP EAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA KICKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
US. INSERTED SOME SHOWERS/VICINITY THUNDER IN AT PIR AND MBG THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AND LEFT ABR AND ATY DRY FOR NOW.
ALTHOUGH...SHOWERS MAY ROTATE UP INTO THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL BACK DOWN TO MVFR/IFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL
RH REMAINS HIGH AND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE QUITE A BIT AT THE SURFACE AND
ABOVE AS A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST
SD BY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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