Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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512
FXUS63 KABR 012327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ALTHOUGH UPPER FLOW IS QUITE CONVOLUTED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DOMINATING AND THE NORTHERN STREAM TWISTED IN KNOTS...MODELS ARE
BECOMING CONSISTENT BRINGING A 95KT JET...ORIENTED FROM OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST...WITH FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE LEFT EXIT
REGION...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. NAM PROFILES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY
AS THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR MOVES OVERHEAD...WITH UPWARDS OF 500J/KG
MUCAPE. SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK AS WELL...SO JUST ANTICIPATING SOME
GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSHOWERS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW 30S...READINGS IN THE MORNING WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 30S.
WILL CONTINUE FROST MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE JAMES VALLEY MONDAY AM.
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY MILD THANKS TO 850MB WARM
ADVECTION...AND WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT. DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO RESULT IN WINDS INCREASING...WITH
NAM PROFILES MIXING TO 20G30KTS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED...THE FORECAST IS DRY
AND WARM WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY EDGES ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS. THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN SHOWS WARMING
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FRIDAY CURRENTLY
SHOWCASED AS THE WARMEST DAY IN THE OUT PERIODS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...SIGNALING A
COOL DOWN FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALOFT...HEIGHTS ARE FALLING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOTED ON THE
INCREASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z NEAR KMBG/KPIR BUT AREAL EXTENT IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE



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