Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 192356 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
656 PM CDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 656 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

A weak upper level disturbance, currently over western SD and
eastern MT will track southeast across the region tonight through
early Thursday morning. This system should bring light pcpn to
central SD, mainly between 6-12z. Canada high pressure will settle
over the region later tonight through Wednesday with seasonal to
slightly below normal temperatures.

The surface high pressure will shift eastward on Thursday night
which allows for WAA over the western Dakotas. The WAA will push
across the region of the CWA on Friday with highs climbing into the
60s and low 70s. With the warm temps and fairly dry airmass, fire
weather will be a concern west river. Winds will shift from the
south to the northwest Thursday afternoon as a front pushes through.
As of now, winds should remain below 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

Upper ridging will keep the region dry until Tuesday. On Tuesday
slight chances for precip will enter the forecast as shortwave
activity begins to move through the upper flow. As the ridge
exits to the east on Wednesday, slight chances for showers will
continue, mainly over the east. A broad area of sfc low pressure
will also settle in on Wednesday.

Temperatures under the ridge will be above average for late October
with highs in the 60s. Coolest max temps will occur during the
latter half of the extended with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

Low VFR/MVFR ceilings are expected to remain or form at all
locations tonight becoming all vfr on Thursday. Otherwise, some
light showers are expected to affect PIR into the early morning
hours as an upper level trough moves through the region.




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