Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 270527 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1227 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Had Jones/Lyman counties briefly in Severe Watch #417 this
evening. Strongest storms have diminished/reconsolidated further
south and west of the cwa. Also had a couple of storms move down
into Corson/Campbell counties, but that convection has diminished
as well. Cleaned up the wx/pop grids but expecting additional
coverage of showers and storms within the next few hours and
persisting into the late night hours across mainly the eastern
half of the cwa while the upper level low spinning east-
southeastward through the region works in tandem with the cold
front also working southeast through the dakotas to produce
adequate forcing/lift for convection. updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 629 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Scattered showers and storms have brought some decent rainfall
mainly to areas along and in the James Valley from this morning into
the afternoon. The clouds and rain with this have also kept
temperatures in check across this region. Several outflow boundaries
along with a frontal zone extending across our northwest cwa and
across southern nd and upper level short wave lift have been
responsible for this convection. Despite all of the convection, there
is still plenty of deep instability across the region along with
decent wind shear west and south in our region. Thus, with the
frontal boundary to our north sinking south through the region
tonight and Wednesday along with some upper short waves moving over,
expect showers and storms to continue in the east with new shower
and storm development farther west. Thus, will continue with high
pops across the region tonight into Wednesday afternoon.

Surface high pressure and drier air will then push into the region
for Wednesday night and Thursday as Canadian air moves in. Thursday
should be mainly a mostly sunny day with dry conditions. Both
Wednesday and Thursday should have below normal temperatures with
highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

The long term portion of the forecast begins with a surface high
pressure over the region with northwesterly flow aloft. The high
pressure will keep most of the CWA dry through Friday afternoon. A
surface low pressure system and upper level shortwave will slowly
cross the region Friday afternoon through Sunday morning with
several rounds of storms possible. With limited temperature
advection and partly cloudy skies, temperatures through the first
half of the extended will average below normal. Upper level ridging
and WAA will develop on Sunday with temperatures climbing above
normal for most locations. Warmer temps are expected Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

An area of low pressure crossing the region will bring shower and
thunderstorm chances mainly to KABR/KATY through Wednesday morning.
Some thunderstorms could produce torrential rainfall. Brief periods
of MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible with these stronger storms.
Short term guidance also continues to suggest that by early
Wednesday morning MVFR cigs could be developing over/near all four
terminals behind the low pressure system.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Mohr
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise


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