Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 152044
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
244 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

OF COURSE MAIN ISSUE IS DEALING WITH WHATS LEFT OF STORM SYSTEM
HEADED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MIXED BAG OF
PCPN TYPES SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING APART.
THIS BAND AND THE COMBINED WIND IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLESOME GIVEN
THE LOW VISIBILITY BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. PLUS THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW NOW EXPECTED IS HIGHER THAN BEFORE. AFTER LOOKING
AT AREA WEB CAMS...FOR NOW FEEL A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CAN
HANDLE THE SITUATION BUT WILL KEEP ANY EYE ON IT. LIKE MENTIONED
BEFORE THE SNOW BAND SHOULD FALL APART BY EARLY EVENING BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE YET. WITH CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL
NORTH INTO CANADA I HAVE DIFFICULTY SEEING ANY REAL REDUCTION
OVERNIGHT AND THUS LOW TEMPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE LOOK WAY TOO COLD.
SIDED MORE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR BOTH LOWS TNT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
WINDS AND PRESUMABLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SOME OF
THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES...SO MAY SEE
THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO TREND THIS WAY. RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR NOW.

A PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. SOME HINTS
OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SMALL POPS INTO THE FORECAST...BUT CERTAINLY
NOTHING OF SUBSTANTIAL CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TODAY...PRODUCING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY /AND WILL REMAIN/ SNOW FOR THE
KMBG/KPIR/KATY TAF SITES. KPIR VSBY WILL BE REDUCED TO IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW SHOULD END IN THE KPIR
AREA AROUND 22Z. FOR KATY...FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW...ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE 19Z-20Z TIME FRAME. SNOW
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AT KATY AND VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS
THAN A MILE. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF...ESTIMATED TO END BY
00Z. AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS MVFR CIGS ARE STILL EXPECTED AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 30
OR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR BUFFALO-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY-SULLY.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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