Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241735 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1235 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

CURRENTLY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED BETWEEN KMBG/KPIR
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG HIGHWAY 12 IN EASTERN SD. THE
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR KPIR WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOTED.
A FEW STRONGER STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
LOW PRESSURE. SMALL HAIL UP TO HALF INCH SIZE HAS BEEN INDICATED
ON RADAR IN A FEW STORMS. EXPECT THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER NE SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE AREA HAS BEEN UNDER A WEAK 500MB RIDGE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT
WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. THE FOCUS HAS
SHIFTED TOWARDS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA HOWEVER. AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT.
THERE ALSO IS A SUBTLE WAVE THAT WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAM SOLUTIONS HAVE ALL LATCHED ONTO THIS
FEATURE...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
FORMING ALONG AN ARC AND LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. ONCE THIS PASS OUT OF THE CWA...WE WILL BE
LEFT WITH AN ALMOST EAST/WEST WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO AN ALMOST
NORTH/SOUTH DRY LINE. AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING TO THE SOUTH OF AND
POOLING OF MOISTURE ALONG THESE FEATURES WILL LEAD TO
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500J/KG.
FOR THE JAMES VALLEY WEST...WIND PROFILES FEATURE SOUTHERLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT SOME
LOW LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED. FOR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS ABSENT. PROFILES AND 0-6KT BULK SHEAR SUPPORT CONVECTIVE MODE
APPROACHING BUT PROBABLY JUST SHY OF SUPERCELLULAR...WHICH WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. I HAVE SOME CONCERN OVER
THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM
FRONT...HOWEVER OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE IS THE SAME. NOT TO MENTION
MOST CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST LIMITED CONVECTION OVER FOR THE JAMES
VALLEY...HIGHLIGHTING THE I29 CORRIDOR NEAR AND SOUTH OF WATERTOWN
INSTEAD.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHES RAPIDLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DRY LINE
PUSHING EAST. PROFILES CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRATUS NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SUPPORTING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INTO MONDAY...AND EVEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE SISSETON HILLS. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES OUT OF CANADA INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
AM...BUT BY THAT POINT WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A LEE LOW DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM...SO ONLY
ANTICIPATE A BRIEF DRY INTERVAL LATE IN THE PERIOD BEFORE CHANCES
FOR MOISTURE RETURN.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO BE QUITE BUSY WEATHERWISE. THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE...AND MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE PROGNOSTICATIONS. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH
ANOTHER TROF/WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
SPREAD PCPN NORTH OVER MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
LIKELY POPS ARE APPROPRIATE. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF LULL IN
THE ACTIVITY LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THEN ANOTHER SYSTEM EJECTS INTO
THE REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PCPN.  NIGHT TIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH AT TIMES THAT SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE
BUT OVERALL RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN TYPE.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...PARTICULARLY IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
FORECAST.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN APR 24 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MVFR/VFR CIGS WILL GIVE
WAY TO IFR/MVFR CIGS BY THIS EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN



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