Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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862
FXUS63 KABR 232329 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
629 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 607 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Still a few clouds in place over the area...but are dissipating this
afternoon...leading to a mostly clear sky tonight under a slowly
exiting surface high. The pressure gradient between this high and
low pressure to the west will tighten up on Friday...making for a
breezy to windy day. Strong WAA also develops with temperatures
rising into the upper 80s east to the upper 90s west Friday
afternoon. Heat indicies may approach advisory criteria across the
southwestern CWA...but would be just for an hour or two over a
fairly small area...so have opted to hold off on issuing an advisory
for now and let later shifts have a chance to reevaluate further.
Main challenge then becomes precipitation chances as the low and
associated frontal boundary track across the area. A strong cap will
be in place ahead of the front...so precipitation chances will be
minimal until late Friday night into Saturday with its passage.
There will be some instability around...but better shear will lag
well behind the front...therefore have just gone with small pops for
now. Weak high pressure moves in behind the exiting system...making
for a dry night Saturday night.

As mentioned above...temperatures will be very warm on Friday...with
highs from the upper 80s east to the upper 90s west. Cooler air
returns behind the front on Saturday...with highs mainly in the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Northwest flow aloft will dominate the long term portion of the
forecast. A few shortwave will slide southeastward across the region
with thunderstorms possible. While nearly every model shows a
shortwave Tuesday night/Wednesday, the differ on placement. This
leads to a broad brush approach to pops during that time period. The
GFS is currently the strongest models with this shortwave with a
concentrated area of two plus inches of QPF.

While temperatures appear on the cool side next week, they will
average within a few degrees of normal. Temperatures may climb above
normal by the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT THU JUN 23 2016

Expect VFR flying weather to persist tonight and Friday. A llj
will develop tonight across central South Dakota, resulting in
some potential low level windshear conditions mainly at KPIR and
KMBG. Also, the potential is rather low for elevated night-time
convection, but the set up will be in place for it tonight, with
the aforementioned llj developing and helping to surge low level
moisture back up into the region overnight. At the same time, good
low to mid-level waa pattern sets up tonight. Will monitor for the
need to introduce a brief shower or thunderstorm mention at any of
the terminals later tonight.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Dorn



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