Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191742 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1142 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY

STRATUS AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW COVERAGE EXTENDS WELL INTO
CANADA. GUIDANCE HAS THIS CLOUD COVER PERSISTING THROUGH THE
DAY...INTO TONIGHT. THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONSEQUENCES OF
THIS...FIRST IS THAT WINDS HAVE PEAKED SINCE THERE WILL BE LESS
MIXING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
VISIBILITY AND ROAD CONDITIONS APPEAR FINE ON WEBCAMS...BUT WILL
KEEP MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW IN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SECOND...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT AS WARM AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET
TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TOWARDS MORNING...BUT WITH CLOUD COVER
AND MIXING WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...FORECAST LOWS ARE NOW SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE. WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
THURSDAY...NOT GOING TO SEE MUCH MOVING OF THE NEEDLE DESPITE CLEAR
SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...SO
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. CIRRUS
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY STALL TEMPERATURES BY MIDNIGHT
HOWEVER. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY...WITH H925
TEMPERATURES FROM +4 TO -2C.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ALMOST SPLIT FLOW LIKE PATTERN IS IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. ONE CHUNK OF ENERGY WILL BE HEADED INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH ANOTHER EXITING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE TWO PIECES
OF ENERGY APPEAR TO LINK UP INTO A FULL LATITUDE TROF OVER OR JUST
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN
FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF. THE TROF
APPEARS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE DESPITE THE PHASING OF
ENERGY. ACCORDING TO DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE POPS THE WETTEST
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT
LAKES WITH MORE DEFORMATION LIKE SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEHIND THE MAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL TO
START OFF THE PERIOD...BUT THEN TRANSITION BACK TO BELOW NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL TAF
SITES. AN OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBY DUE TO LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT
GENERALLY VFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FROM THE
NORTHWEST MOST OF THE DAY...DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY POST SUNSET.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FOR THE MVFR/VFR CIGS TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER WILL GO PESSIMISTIC WITH CLOUD COVER AND WILL MENTION
MVFR...LOW END VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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