Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 170532 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
MIXED DOWN WINDS HAVE TOPPED OUT IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA. WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION...EXPECTATION IS FOR
WINDS TO DIMINISH BUT REMAIN BREEZY ALL NIGHT. MIXED DOWN WINDS
UNDER THE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY CONDITIONS AGAIN
FOR FRIDAY...BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LESS INTENSITY. H85 READINGS BOTTOM
OUT FOR FRIDAY WITH READINGS AT +3 TO -1C...WITH THE ADDITION OF
SOME SHALLOW DIABATICALLY DRIVEN STRATOCU ALSO HELPING TO INHIBIT
WARMING. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE SATURDAY AM...PUSHING EAST
WITH RETURN FLOW AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION LATE SATURDAY.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. PRECIP CHANCES WITHIN THIS FORECAST AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT
WEEK HAVE SLIPPED ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND NOW APPEAR TO BE ANCHORED
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...IT STILL APPEARS
THAT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM DAYS /COMPARED TO
OCTOBER CLIMO NORMALS/ BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
AND USHERS THE NEXT EPISODE OF COOLER CANADIAN-SOURCE AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR STRATUS CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND A STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
AS NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN BREEZY/WINDY. CEILINGS MAY BECOME IFR
FOR A TIME AT ABR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AS THE STRATUS CLOUDS
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT AT PIR AND MBG. EXPECT ABR AND ATY TO CONTINUE
WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY RISING TO LOW VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AT ALL LOCATIONS FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN/MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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