Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 182333 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
633 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Stratus clouds are hanging in tough over northern and eastern parts
of the CWA, although a few breaks are beginning to show up.
Temperatures continue to struggle climbing with the lack of
sunshine. Main issue in the very short term deals with the degree of
stratus erosion into the evening and what, if any, fog potential
there is this evening. Most short term guidance suggests this
stratus deck will linger into the evening, while seeing some degree
of erosion at the same time. Timing this erosion is difficult, and
to what degree of areal coverage. Already beginning to see mid level
clouds streaming in from the west in advance of the next storm
system, so whatever clearing there is late this afternoon and
evening will likely be filled in by a higher mid level deck.
Therefore, fog chances are very iffy, but cannot be ruled out given
the small chances for a few hours of clearing this evening and the
surface ridge building in on top of wet soils. For the time being,
left fog mention out of the forecast given the low confidence, but
something to monitor this evening for sure.

Focus will then turn to the storm system moving in late tonight
through Wednesday night. Models still take aim on the area with
widespread showers. In fact, the bulk of the QPF has moved northward
a tad it seems, more into the CWA. With a lack of any instability,
it appears this time around we will be dealing with just showers.
Given the abundance of clouds on Wednesday, highs will be on the
cool side with readings in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Things begin to dry out on Thursday with warming temperatures into
the 60s for most areas. Models do show some shortwave energy moving
southeast across the eastern Dakotas and into Minnesota Thursday
afternoon and evening. This system may clip the far northeast corner
of the CWA with some showers, but overall it appears this system
will largely miss the CWA for the time being.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

The long term models show good agreement through the entire period
with the upper level flow and individual short wave troughs. Friday
begins with a significant upper level trough digging off to our
southwest with weak upper level high pressure ridging over our
region. The trough may affect our far southwest cwa with some rain
showers on Friday. Otherwise, the period from Friday through Sunday
looks to be dry across our cwa. The weak high pressure ridging over
our region on Saturday will diminish as the upper level flow
increases from the west as another upper level ridge moves in from
the west from Saturday night into Sunday. The models then all agree
well with a short wave trough coming in from the west and across our
region later Sunday night into Monday evening bringing back decent
chances of showers. Another system for Tuesday will bring in more
chances of rain. Highs through Monday are expected to be mostly in
the 60s with clear to partly cloudy skies through Sunday. Monday
should be mostly cloudy with the chances of rain showers and it may
also be cooler than in the current forecast. Tuesday looks to be in
the 50s at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Sct mvfr cigs this evening should scatter out this evening,
However, more mvfr and even ifr cigs are expected with rain as it
forms and moves east across the region late tonight and Wednesday.
Vsbys will also lower into the mvfr range with the rain.




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