Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 161634 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1034 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Issued at 1034 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Low clouds along with some fog in the east will lift
out/dissipate into the early afternoon. Otherwise, satellite
still showing abundant high level clouds streaming over the
region from the west. These clouds will affect the rise in
temperatures today and may have to lower the highs some.
Otherwise, it has already become windy this morning across much of
the region. The mixing layer will be limited today thus, dont
expect winds to become too strong today. Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

The sfc high that was overhead Wednesday afternoon as shifted
just east of our area, and into MN. Expect breezy winds out of the
southeast today, as we are in between the exiting 1025mb high moving
across WI, and low pressure nearing from Montana and Wyoming.
Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 mph are possible.
We will be flirting with Wind Advisory criteria near the MO River
around 15Z, around the James River Valley by 18Z, and over our
eastern counties after 21Z. High temperatures will vary greatly
across the region, as a warm front surges into at least southern SD
by the end of the north day. with highs in the mid 30s, in western
Minnesota, to the mid 60s, in southwestern South Dakota. Increased
winds/gusts for tonight across the Coteau des Prairies.

Low pressure to our west will stretch from eastern Saskatchewan
through western SD by 03Z Friday. The southern extent of the low
will set up southwest to northeast across the cwa by 09Z, and just
to our south and east shortly after 12Z. This boundary will continue
to exit to our southeast during the day Friday, as temperatures rise
into the 40s. Southwesterly flow returns aloft late Thursday
afternoon, with several embedded waves nearing.

Still looking at the potential for light rain along and west of the
MO River Friday, with amounts of less than 0.10 inch set up
across Corson and Dewey Counties. Cooler air will not be far away.
Friday evening will bring about the highest pops of the period,
with a chance of rain changing to all snow. QPF is still expected
to be light, so snow should be less than an inch at this point.
The best chance of accumulations will likely be 00-03Z Saturday.
The 500mb trough will push across the Dakotas Friday night into
early Saturday morning. Highs will be back into the upper 20s to
low 40s again Saturday as breezy northwest winds usher in cooler
air. 850mb temps will fall to -4 to -12C (lowest over MN) by the
end of the day Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

The extended period looks to be a fairly quiet one. The upper level
pattern will feature mainly northwest flow, with just a few weak
shortwaves moving through. The surface pattern will be fairly
progressive, with high pressure over the area Saturday night and
Sunday, to be followed by a weak frontal boundary moving through on
Monday. High pressure moves back in Monday night through Tuesday
night, with another weak frontal boundary moving through on
Wednesday. With no significant upper level support, both fronts
looks to move through dry, making for a completely dry extended

Temperatures will be mild during the early part of the period, with
highs in the 40s and 50s. Cooler air moves in on Tuesday with highs
mainly in the 30s before slightly warmer air returns late in the
period. Overnight lows in the teens and 20s will be common.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in fog are anticipated across the eastern
part of the area this morning, affecting KATY and KABR. These
conditions will begin to improve by the mid to late morning hours,
with VFR conditions then expected for the remainder of the day and
tonight. Gusty southeast winds are expected from mid morning into
the evening as well, generally in the 20 to 35 knot range.




LONG TERM...Parkin
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