Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 302327 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
627 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ON NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
A NUMBER OF WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT WILL INDUCE SHOWERS. EXACT TIMING
AND POSITION ARE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SO HAVE BROADBRUSHED POPS.

FOR TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL DOWN OFF THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE EAST BUT THERE IS AROUND
50 KTS OF BULK SHEAR WEST RIVER. COMBINED WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG CAPE
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
ACROSS CORSON/DEWEY COUNTIES. THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE WEST RIVER
COUNTIES COULD ALSO SEE SOME STORMS DRIFT IN FROM WESTERN SD.

AS A SFC LOW MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY IT WILL DRAW UP MOISTURE ON
SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. THIS MOISTURE FEED COUPLED
WITH MORE SHORTWAVES...PERHAPS EVEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WED NIGHT
WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
DAYTIME THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUBDUED BY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SO FORECAST
HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC A FEW DAYS AGO...PLUS THE PROJECTED
STATE OF THE MJO ALL SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. GENERALLY EXPECTING A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND BEYOND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION ON FRIDAY. AT
THIS TIME ONLY THE GFS SHOWS CONVECTION WITH THIS SHORTWAVE. THE
BEST TIME PERIOD FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL USED. BASED ON THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE REGARDLESS OF THE TIMING FOR THE COLD FRONT. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE WARMEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM SHOULD BE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SUNDAY COULD BE WARM AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA
THIS EVENING...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING...WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER
THAN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...PARKIN


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