Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 252326 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
626 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

See updated aviation discussion below.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface front has cleared the CWA with westerly flow and falling
dewpoints, although we are seeing some post frontal convection along
the far eastern CWA as temperatures in the mid levels cool faster
than at the surface. Dry air advection will help limit any potential
for severe weather however.

The influence of the upper low will stay with us tonight as winds
remain out of the west although with the expectation that the surface
gradient drops off. Thus, anticipate rather pleasant conditions with
cool temperatures and low humidity overnight.

Fire weather is chief concern for the rest of the forecast. With
westerly flow and dry conditions Sunday, expect deep mixing, between
700 and 750mb CWA wide. This will allow for winds to peak in the 15-
30kt range. The plume of driest air in the mid/low levels is
currently overhead, and by Sunday 850mb dewpoints increase to around
+2 to +4C, although closer to -1C in far western counties, so
most of the area will see surface dewpoints in the low 50s, though
west river could drop to around 40F. Resulting afternoon relative
humidity will thus bottom out between 20 and 40 percent.

Monday we see winds shift to a more northerly component with
cold/dry air advection. 850mb dewpoints bottom out along the red
river valley down south into the eastern CWA, as low as -10C, while
the rest of the CWA is in the single digits. Thankfully cooler
temperatures and lower winds will limited the overall fire weather
threat despite the increasingly drier conditions.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Overall the 12z models remain consistent with the overall mid level
flow prediction. A positive PNA pattern will exist over the CONUS.
This setup is always tricky under northwest flow aloft. The models
do continue to keep most of the moisture/instability pushed up
against the high plains, and this may well be where most of the MCS
activity is generated during the long term. However, those same
models are still generating some pcpn further east.  Confidence on
this proliferation of low pops is quite low but will have to be
maintained until the picture becomes clearer.  Temperatures overall
should be near to perhaps just a bit below normal during the period.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and Sunday.
Gusty west to northwest winds will diminish will diminish after
sunset...then will increase again by late morning on Sunday.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin



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