Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 110847
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
347 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE.

AS OF 8Z...GENERAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA THANKS TO A 40 TO 50
KNOT LLJ. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT THIS CWA THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH DRY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THAT SAID...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THIS CWA DURING PEAK HEATING.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST THIS COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH DRY...WHILE
OTHERS SHOW WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMOVED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL
MAINTAIN A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TRAVERSING
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL INTERACT WITH A 30-40 KNOT LLJ TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER
MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING PCPN REMAINING SOUTH OF THIS CWA.

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN INVADING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS ON THUNDERSTORMS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...TO THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

A VERY STRONG AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE BACK INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH ON
MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST. HOWEVER THE MAIN STORY WITH THIS TROUGH
WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES IT WILL USHER IN. HIGHS ARE
ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S ON MONDAY. THEN ON MONDAY NIGHT AS
A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
ACROSS THE REGION. THE SFC HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY TREND
UPWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST. BY
FRIDAY TEMPS WILL SOAR INTO THE 80S AND 90S AGAIN WHEN A LEE SIDE
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER
REMAIN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...MAINLY FORECAST TO IMPACT THE KATY TAF SITE. BEYOND BRIEF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
STORMS...MVFR/IRF CIGS AND VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE KATY TAF
SITE. THE WARM MOIST MASS IN PLACE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOWER CLOUDS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE OF SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS
WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN



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