Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241734 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE CWA AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES EXIST NOW FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA
UP THROUGH SUNRISE. ALSO HAVE INSERTED PATCHY FOG AS SOME LOW
CLOUDS AND SCT LOW VSBYS HAVE FORMED IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HYDRO PRODUCTS
AS WELL AND THIS IS DISCUSSED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.

CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT TODAY AS SFC LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA
AND DRY AIR ALOFT OVERTAKES THE REGION. AT THE SFC
THOUGH...DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
WEATHER LOOKS RATHER TRANQUIL MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE SFC
HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD. LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT A BIT ON THE COOL
SIDE AS WELL WITH NORTHERN AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS A BIT ON TUESDAY AND CONFINED THEM TO WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE DRY SFC HIGH STILL IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED FORECAST CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MARCH
ACROSS A MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES REALLY DROP OFF SUBSTANTIALLY
WHILE THE REGION DEALS WITH THE COMPLEXITIES OF A POTENTIAL
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD OF SPLIT-FLOW OVER THE REGION. COOLER THAN
CLIMO NORMS STILL LOOKS PROBABLE FOR WEDNESDAY...CWA-WIDE. THEN
LOW LEVEL WAA STARTS TO SET UP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES...SPREADING EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. THE ONLY
OTHER MINOR CONCERN MAY BE SOME CU THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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