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000
FXUS63 KABR 131557 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1057 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TODAY PERIOD FORECAST. SUNNY...DRY AND
WARM SHOULD SUFFICE. IT WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BY LATE IN THE
DAY AS WELL.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CAUSE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH ONLY INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST...THE
UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A 40 KNOT LLJ WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE PRESSURE
SYSTEMS AFTER 6Z FRIDAY. WHILE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES EXCEED 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE CWA...THE BEST INSTABILITY ONLY REACHES THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. SOME MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL ACTUALLY
DEVELOP OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...EVEN THOUGH MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 10 DEGREES. IT SEEMS POSSIBLE FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL CAP...WHICH SHOULD BE
ALONG THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AFTER
6Z...THEY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH
THE MID MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THE MORNING CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT THE AFTERNOON SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK FROM SPC SUGGEST AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. WITH EXCELLENT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE I-29 CORRIDOR.

DRY AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING TO THE 40S...AND LOWER 50S.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE TEMPS/PCPN. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE FLOW PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING
THE PERIOD. WE START OFF WITH FAIRLY FLAT FLOW UNDERNEATH A
SOUTHERN CANADIAN MID LEVEL LOW. THAT LOW STARTS GETTING FORCED TO
THE SOUTHEAST AS A RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CHANCES FOR PCPN GETTING SHOVED SOUTH AND EAST
AWAY FROM THE ABR CWA...AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE MIGHT STILL BE SOME UPSLOPE/DIURNAL MCS ACTIVITY THAT CLIPS
THE FAR SOUTHWEST CWA...BUT EVEN THAT CHANCE LOOKS FAIRLY SMALL AT
THIS TIME. THEN FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS INTO AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
FAIRLY WARM PLUME OF AIR AT H7 ADVECTING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LLM/WARMTH/INSTABILITY MAKE A
RAPID RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA VIA SEVERAL DAYS OF A MODERATE
TO STRONG LLJ. WITHOUT ANY REAL DISCERNIBLE FRONT IN THE AREA ITS
HARD TO SAY IF CONVECTION WILL FIRE OR NOT UNDER WARM/HOT EML. FOR
NOW HAVE KEPT CHANCES MINIMAL. BEST CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR WITH
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...IT SHOULD FINALLY FEEL LIKE SUMMER BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS THAT WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG AT KPIR THIS MORNING...THE REST OF THE
DAY SHOULD BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN