Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 171751 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1151 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. OVERALL A QUIET
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL HANG IN
ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AND MAY SPREAD A LITTLE FARTHER EAST TONIGHT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
STRATUS EXTENDS NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AM.
WITH STEERING WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CLOUDS TO MOVE LITTLE FROM ITS
CURRENT POSITION TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT HIGHS...AS WILL RECENT
SNOW COVER...THANKS TO WEAK MIXING AND H925 TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND -8 TO -10C. THE SPOT WITH THE MOST UNCERTAINTY IS THE
ABERDEEN AREA WHICH WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN AND LACKS SNOW COVER.

A WEAK TROF WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. NOT MUCH
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT ADDED A MENTION OF FLURRIES. WILL
ALSO SEE WEAK WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD...SO MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY TEMPER EXPECTATIONS
ON HOW WARM DAYTIME READINGS GO HOWEVER.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WILL BE
DRY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...THEN LOOKS TO BECOME A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE REGION. MAY
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A QUESTION AS COOLER AIR DOES NOT LOOK
TO GET PULLED OVER THE REGION UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL
STICK WITH MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY...THEN
SWITCH IT OVER TO SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE PRECIPITATION EXITING THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP A SMALL
POP ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY FOR NOW.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF IFR/MVFR STRATUS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AFFECTING KMBG AND KPIR.
SCATTERED FLURRIES WITH BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE LOW STRATUS. KABR WILL SEE SCT/BKN CIGS AROUND 800 FT/AGL
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WILL BRING
SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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