Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 021539 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1039 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS FINE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES THIS MORNING.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE.

A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BRING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT WILL CAUSE A
WEAK LLJ TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON THE NOSE OF THE LLJ COULD
AFFECT I-29 CORRIDOR. CONVECTION COULD LINGER BEYOND 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO CHC POPS.

A STRONG TROUGH...CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA...WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 0Z
THURSDAY. WAA ALONG WITH INCREASING LLM WILL SPREAD INTO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WARM FRONT. WITH AN INCREASING EML WITH 700 MB TEMPS EXCEEDING
+11C...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

STRONG CAA WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN CWA WHERE
BETTER LLM IS LOCATED. WILL MAINTAIN SCHC TO LOW END CHC POPS FOR
NOW.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

NOT MUCH HAPPENING DURING THE LONG TERM WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING THE WEATHER. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR IT TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES
THE WEATHER. ALSO...NOT MUCH FOR CLOUD COVER THROUGH MOST OF THE
LONG TERM. BROUGHT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS BACK TO THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY IN THE
LONG TERM WITH A SLOW WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA PUSHES EAST AND WARMER SOUTH WINDS RETURN. HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY WILL SLOWLY WARM INTO THE MID 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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