Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 110445 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1045 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Getting reports of 5 to 6 inches in east central South Dakota so
have pulled the trigger and issued a winter storm warning through
the night for this area where more snow is expected as a band
continues to move over this area overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 913 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Have been introducing little changes to the forecast all evening.
Given latest 88D data have decided to bump up some pcpn amounts
and expand advisory back west where band of snow is expected to
move across through late night. Suspect some 3+ inch reports from
that band. In the east have already had reports of 3 to 4 inches
so 6 is not entirely out of the question but suspect those reports
will be limited. Temperatures will be steady or slowly rise
overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 340 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Band of snow set up just to the south, and is migrating to the east.
Otherwise just light snow with limited accumulations across the CWA
this afternoon. Models still picking up on a shared energy area
moving overhead tonight, though some of the CAM solutions drift this
feature into North Dakota. Either way, with upwards of 20 microbars
of lift and a deep dendritic growth zone, anticipate additional few
inches across the CWA. Snow amounts from these three system probably
wont phase over much more than a few isolated spots, but total are
expected to reach Advisory criteria if they haven`t gotten close
already in a few spots. Winds will remain generally light out of the
east shifting to the north overnight, so blowing snow is not going
to be an issue. Temperatures will continue to moderate overnight as
well due to clouds and as we experience the last of the warm
advection.

Focus shifts to Monday with the passage of another Arctic boundary.
925mb temperatures will already be cold across much of the CWA but a
warm advection pattern in the western CWA will result in 925mb
temperatures dropping 7-10C.  A pressure bubble to the west will
result in pressure rises of 6-10mb/6 hours thereafter. Mixed winds
in the NAM/GFS are around 20/25 with gusts upper 20s to low 30s
respectively. Added mention of blowing snow. Models also bring in a
few hundreds of QPF so increased pops to likely for the upslope
Coteau.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

The long term models agree very well from Tuesday through Saturday
with deep northerly flow bringing a continuous flow of Arctic air to
our region through the period. The widespread snow cover across our
region will also have an influence on the day and nighttime
temperatures. Highs will be mostly in the single digits and lower
teens above zero with lows mainly in the single digits and lower
teens below zero. Wednesday night may end up being much colder as
the surface high pressure area settles over the region. With clear
skies and light winds, temperatures may end up being 5 to 15 degrees
colder than in the current forecast. The long term should be dry
until late in the period as a couple upper level low pressure
troughs kick into our region from the west and southwest. The lift
with these troughs along with the Pacific moisture riding over the
cold air should bring chances of light snow starting Thursday night
through Friday night. Saturday at this time looks to be dry with
highs maybe not making it to above zero.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 519 PM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

A mix of mvfr/ifr cigs and vsbys is expected through tonight at
all taf sites. KMBG/KABR/KATY will see the lowest vsbys due to
falling snow overnight. This area will see the greatest
accumulation of snow from a couple different snow bands. Slow
improvement will occur from west to east late tonight and Sunday
morning.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Sunday for SDZ004-005-009-
     010-016-017-034-036-037.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for SDZ006>008-011-
     021.

     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for SDZ018>020-022-
     023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TDK
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...TDK



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