Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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751
FXUS63 KABR 240539 AAD
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1139 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1131 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 947 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Regional 88D composite, surface observations, calls placed in the
wint wx adv counties and model cross sections all indicate that 2
to 5 or more inches of snow and significant blowing snow is no
longer anticipated across Jones, Lyman and Buffalo counties. As
such, the winter weather advisory has been cancelled. No other
changes expected or needed at the moment. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Only subtle cosmetic adjustments have been made to pops/qpf/snow
amounts in the tonight period. So far, Kennebec co-op observer is
the only report of measurable snow that we`ve received, 0.5 inches
of snowfall. Even though the far southwestern forecast zones,
including I-90 in Jones and Lyman counties, are located where it
is tough for area 88D`s to "see" falling snow, model cross
sections indicate that dry air entrainment (between 850hpa and
500hpa) does not quite reach all the way down to Jones/Lyman
counties yet, so confident enough to continue the high end pops
for some light qpf and snowfall amounts there through appx
midnight. Plan to leave the wint wx adv in place for
Jones/Lyman/Buffalo for now and re-evaluate in a few hours to see
if radar/surface obs do in fact trend toward dry air entrainment
winning out, so-to-speak, even as far south as I-90 through late
this evening. Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 309 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Have spent most of the day backpedaling on snow amounts as the storm
system continues to take more of a southerly track, mainly affecting
far southern SD, NE, and over into southeast SD. Will leave the
Winter Weather Advisory in place over the far southern CWA, but this
may be able to be cancelled early at some point this evening. Had
earlier today downgraded the warning to an advisory, and cancelled
the northern advisory areas. Web cams across the southern CWA along
I-90 barely show anything on the ground, so have drastically reduced
snow accums from that of 24 hours ago as models continue to shift
things away.

Otherwise, expecting some breezy/gusty northerly winds tonight and
through the day Friday on the back side of the low pressure system.
Temperatures will remain cool on Friday, with highs mainly in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

For the most part, the weekend into next week will be fairly quiet.
A few upper level shortwaves will track across the region, and in
conjunction with weak surface boundaries, may be enough to result in
a few snow/rain showers at times. Currently, the best chances for
that will come Saturday night, and again late Monday night through
the day Wednesday. Any precipitation that does occur will be light,
with little in the way of accumulations.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the
period, with daytime highs in the 30s and overnight lows in the
teens to lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1131 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Similar to last night, the back edge of mvfr cigs are approaching
the KABR and KATY terminals. Short range guidance indicates this
clearing line will reach these two terminals within the next 2 to
4 hours. The clearing line is forecast to extend all the way to
the KPIR and KMBG terminals by Friday morning as well. Expect VFR
conditions to prevail once the clearing line pushes through, on
breezy to windy north winds.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Dorn



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