Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 040214 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
914 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO STREAM OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHILE THE
EAST REMAINS CLEAR. BACKED OFF ON THE TIMING OF POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA...WITH NO STORMS IN
THE VICINITY AT THIS TIME. NO CHANGES MADE TO WINDS OR
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL LARGELY HAVE AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...WINDS LIGHT...AND
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE
EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. ON TUESDAY THE
SFC HIGH BEGINS SHIFTING EASTWARD AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD...WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS SETTING UP MAINLY
OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. HIGHEST MLCAPE VALUES DO CLIP THE
SOUTHWEST CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH OVERALL BULK SHEAR VALUES
ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. IT STILL APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE CWA WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN CHUNK
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS A REAL
LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO PERHAPS SEE SOME GENERIC
THUNDERSHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF RAINFALL. HAVE INCREASED
POPS A BIT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THERE IS
BEST AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN REGARDS TO QPF PLACEMENT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL BE AN ACTIVE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SFC LOWS AND STRONGER SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON THURSDAY THEN A WEAKER TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK MORE AUTUMN LIKE WITH WEAKER
INSTABILITY AND PROBABLY JUST GENERAL THUNDER. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE REGION STARTING SAT NIGHT AND EXITING SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS GREATER INSTABILITY AND FORCING AVAILABLE WITH THE WEEKEND EVENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP MODERATING HIGHS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN


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