Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 062109
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
309 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE STORM FOR LATER TNT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE OVER THE REGION.  BUT FIRST THINGS FIRST.  FOR THIS
EVENING HAVE PUT IN SOME LIGHT RAIN.  LATEST 88D AND SAT PIC LOOPS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
THEN SKIRTING SOUTH ALONG THE BORDER AREAS WITH SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST
HRRR RUNS SHOULD THIS ACTIVITY LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
STRONG VORT MOVES THROUGH.  THEN FOR LATER TNT DECENT PRESSURE
BUBBLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION.  THIS WILL PROVIDE
THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONG WINDS...PROBABLY WITH GUSTS REACHING HIGH
WIND CRITERIA.  THEN THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE WIND UNTIL
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
KICK IN AND HELP TRANSPORT STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE GROUND. BUFR
SOUNDINGS STILL SUPPORT STRONG MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND THUS HIGH WIND
WARNING LOOKS GOOD.  ON SUNDAY IN THE EAST AM STILL LOOKING AT A
DECENT CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS.  MIX IN THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND HIGH WINDS AND YOU HAVE THE RECIPE FOR BLIZZARD LIKE VSBYS. NOT
A SLAM DUNK SINCE WE DONT HAVE MUCH SNOW ON THE GROUND
CURRENTLY...BUT FEEL THE SITUATION WARRANTS AN UPGRADE FROM A WATCH
TO A WARNING.  THE WIND DOES SLACKEN SOME SUNDAY NIGHT BUT REMAINS
PRETTY HEALTHY THROUGH MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES
BEGIN THE PERIOD ABOVE NORMAL BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL IN THE EAST MY MONDAY...BUT REMAIN MILDER OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE WEST
COAST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK ENERGY AND A FAIRLY
SATURATED LAYER COULD RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE ANYTHING
MAJOR IN TERMS OF QPF. THE ONLY OTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WHICH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO QUICKLY SLIDE SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND LACK
OF MOISTURE MAY PLAY A FACTOR. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
REMAIN RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION
LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

LOOKING BEYOND THE CURRENT TAF TIMEFRAME...THE STRONGEST
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN GUSTS AT THE
KMBG AND KPIR TAF SITES COULD PEAK AROUND 50-55 KTS. WINDS WILL
ALSO BE STRONG AND GUSTY AT THE KABR/KATY TAF SITE /GUSTS UP TO 45
KTS/ BUT THIS AREA MAY ALSO BE DEALING WITH LIGHT SNOW WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTION.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
     SDZ004-005-009-010-016-017-034>037-045-048-051.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ007-008-
     011-019>023.

     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR SDZ003-015-033.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR SDZ006-018.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...SERR


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.