Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 062348 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
548 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

CURRENTLY...UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GOOD WESTERLY
WAA MIXING WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING INTO THE 50S
THROUGHOUT THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND WEST RIVER OVER BARE
GROUND AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION WITH SNOW COVER STILL ON
THE GROUND ARE WARMING INTO THE 40S. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE JAMES
RIVER AND RED RIVER VALLEYS...THE WAA AND WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ARE HELPING TO WARM THINGS INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

LATER TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
CANADA WILL PRODUCE A WIDE VARIETY OF LOW/MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION. OVER THIS CWA...THE GFS AND NAM FED THROUGH BUFKIT
SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW NEVER REALLY FULLY SATURATES THE COLUMN OR
STICKS AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THIS
CWA. AS SUCH...HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURES AND FORECAST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...IF ANY PRECIP WHERE TO DEVELOP OVER OR
MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES TONIGHT...IT WOULD HAVE THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF BEING LIGHT SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT
RAIN...WITH FREEZING SPRINKLES OR VERY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
MAINTAINING A RATHER LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE NOW PROGGING THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE IN
THE SYSTEM TO SWEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS CWA A
LITTLE BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST. AND...THERMAL PROFILES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A MIXED BAG OF
PRECIP TYPES. AT THIS TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNT GUIDANCE BEING
GENERATED FOR THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER MEAGER...GENERALLY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. SO...AT THIS POINT...NOT AN OVERLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER SITUATION POTENTIALLY. BUT STILL WORTH KEEPING
AN EYE ON.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT REMAIN DRY FORECAST PERIODS. AND...DESPITE
THE ACTIVE PATTERN OF WARM FRONTS AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH
THE CWA WITH TONIGHT`S AND SATURDAY NIGHT`S LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...ON THE WHOLE...FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM...GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE CLIMO NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...BASICALLY A CONTINUOUS RISE OF 500 MB HEIGHTS THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS DO SHOW SOME WEAK ENERGY TRYING TO SNEAK
UNDER THE RIDGE AT THE VERY TAIL END OF THE LONG TERM...BUT KEPT THE
FORECAST COMPLETELY DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF DO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL THERMAL PATTERN...WITH THE ECMWF
GENERALLY BEING THE MUCH WARMER MODEL. THE GFS HAS ALSO BEEN LESS
CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN AS WELL. THEREFORE...COLLABORATED A
SUPERBLEND/ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THIS MEANS THE REGION COULD
BE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.
AS WINDS TURN NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL RH INCREASES LATER TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MBG...ABR
AND ATY. THESE WILL MOVE ON LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...MOHR






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