Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 111746 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1146 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND SHOULD BE RAMPING DOWN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED UP 50 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM AROUND MCINTOSH TO
GETTYSBURG TO HURON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL AGAIN BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SNOW AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA TODAY. PEAK LIFT WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE IS ONLY AROUND 7 TO 8 MICROBARS SO SNOW IS
UNLIKELY TO BE INTENSE. THAT SAID...THE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THIS
SYSTEM TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FAVORABLE TO SET UP ANOTHER WEAK
BAND FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. WE AGAIN RUN INTO THE PROBLEM OF
SATURATION DROPPING OUT OF THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE. UNCERTAIN OVER THIS OUTCOME AS LIFT DIMINISHES
DRAMATICALLY...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE FORECAST.

COLDER AIR BACKS IN FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE
DAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD
COVER AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES...LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BEFORE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTH...MILDER AIR PUSHES BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COULD GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT QPF IS OVERDONE AS OMEGA VALUES ONLY
RUN AROUND 2 MICROBARS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
STARTS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL SEE A BRIEF RESPITE IN THE
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM MONTANA MONDAY NIGHT TO IOWA BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY...SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COMPARED TO THE GFS AND GEM.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS TIME AS THE REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS.

AFTER A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
ALL TERMINALS. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL OF KATY AND
KABR. CONDITIONS AT KMBG MAY BECOME VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SD


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