Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 010530
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1230 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION
CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY SINCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
CRITERIA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DIMINISH FURTHER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN SD. THE THREAT FOR STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.



&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OVERNIGHT.
STARTING TO SHOW GOOD CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE DRY SLOT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS MAY BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NORTHWARD MOVING
DRY LINE. SURFACE BASED CAPE HAS RISEN TO 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN A
NARROW RIBBON IN ADVANCE OF THIS DRY LINE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. THUS...SEVERE STORMS COULD STILL
OCCUR INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ALSO...EXPECT STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AND EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHWEST WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LESS WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW TWO MORE
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR REGION
BRINGING ONLY SOME CLOUD COVER TO OUR AREA. THE NEXT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
OTHERWISE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW IN BEHIND BRINGING
SOME WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND AN EXITING TROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
IN FACT...BY SATURDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOW 30S...AND DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE
RIDGE...AND DECOUPLING OF WINDS...TEMPERATURES MAY EVEN DROP TO
COLDER VALUES...WHICH COULD BE NEARING THE HARD FREEZE CATEGORY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LINGERING UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. NORTHWEST FLOW THEN
TAKES HOLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. PERHAPS SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR
NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE
REGION...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE KATY WHERE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. KMBG WILL ALSO BE SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS THROUGH
09Z BEFORE BECOMING SCT-BKN VFR CIGS. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...HINTZ

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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