Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 310000 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
700 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 318 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Storms now beginning to develop across western and central portions
of the state in association with a cold front. Models are in good
agreement that this activity will line out and track eastward across
the state through the evening and early overnight hours. MUCAPE has
increased to 3000+ J/KG across the Missouri river area...along with
some increase in low level shear. Expect the line of storms will
have the potential to produce large hail and gusty winds through its
life span late this afternoon into tonight. The low pressure system
will swing northward late tonight with some precipitation on the
back side of it possibly affecting the northwestern CWA Tuesday
afternoon.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s northwest to
the upper 50s east. High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the
mid 60s northwest to the mid 70s east.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 318 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

The upper low is expected to continue to pull out of the region on
Wednesday. In its wake, cold air advection will continue with the
coolest temps of the week. Winds will be breezy from the northwest.

The trend of the western CONUS ridge rebounding through the period
looks good. This will leave most of the region under northwest flow,
with warmest temps in the west, trending cooler east. The threat of
thunderstorms in the northwest flow are too tricky to time at this
moment, but I would expect some thunderstorms possible later this
week and weekend. Pops will remain low at this time however.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 658 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

Thunderstorms will move across the region into the early morning
hours affecting all locations as a cold front moves through.
Conditions could become ifr/mvfr with heavy rain and lower ceilings
with the storms. Otherwise, conditions will become vfr later tonight
and Tuesday.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Mohr



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