Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 261752
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1152 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
THE BAND FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE COURSE OF THE LATE MORNING. WILL REARRANGE HEADLINES AND EXTEND
FOR A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS. LIGHT SNOW IN NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA MIGHT LEAVE US WITH A DUSTING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSOURI VALLEY AS WELL.

SEE UPDATE BELOW FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE ONGOING FLURRIES
AND THE IMPACT OF CLOUD COVER AND RECENT SNOW ON TEMPERTURES.

KEPT A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH SOME CAA HELPING TO SUSTAIN ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE FORCING HAS
DIMINISHED/SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTH. DEUEL COUNTY MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING ON THE EDGE OF A SECONDARY DEVELOPING BAND THAT WILL
IMPACT SOUTHEAST SD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT THEIR PEAK RIGHT
NOW AND WILL LIKELY FALL SLIGHTLY OR REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE
DAY.

THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF STRATUS THAT HAS A GOOD FEED OUT OF
CANADA. EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS OVER
NORTH DAKOTA ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OR LIFTING WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW TO OCCUR TODAY. STAYED A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC AND BROKE MOST OF
THE AREA OUT OF THE CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. CLOUD COVER WILL
IMPACT OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TRIED TO
ADJUST FORECAST FOR AREAS WITH SNOW VERSUS NO SNOW.

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUIETER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE
DOWN INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL DURING THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (NEW YEARS DAY)

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO LONG TERM FORECAST. MODELS AGAIN PRETTY
CONSISTENT WITH PLUNGING THE ARCTIC AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO INTO THE 20S BELOW
ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING. THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST AREAS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW...BUT AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT ATTM.

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE LOCKED INTO THE ARCTIC AIR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES. WARMER AIR WILL RETURN HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS AGAIN BY THURSDAY. OTHER THAN THE LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST LOOKS DRY.





&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...LIGHT SNOW WILL RESULT IN INTERMITTENT MVFR VISBY
AS WELL. THE BIGGEST IMPACT IS LIKELY WITH A BAND OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/FREEZING RAIN THAT IS DRIFTING BETWEEN KABR AND KATY
TERMINALS...AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT KATY BY MID AFTERNOON.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-
     CODINGTON-DAY-DEUEL-GRANT-HAMLIN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BIG
     STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...CONNELLY
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...CONNELLY

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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