Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 280532 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1232 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 832 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LIGHT RAIN...MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO SNOW...WILL CONTINUE
TO WRAP AROUND THE UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. ADJUSTED GRIDS A LITTLE FOR THE
NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

PRECIP...AND IN WHAT FORM...WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE 500MB LOW NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE ACROSS IA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW
NEARING FROM THE SW...A RIDGE WILL TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS CENTRAL-
E SD AND W CENTRAL SD ON FRIDAY.

BANDS OF RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO ROTATE UP TROUGH OUR AREA
THANKS TO THE SFC LOW OVER E NE. DRY AIR HAS BEEN ABLE TO SET UP
ACROSS OUR S CENTRAL SD ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE NEXT
ROUND NEARING FROM NE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP HIGH
POPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WHEN THE SFC LOW
EXITS ACROSS IA...ALLOWING A RIDGE OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SINK
IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT-TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S. WHILE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARMER ROAD TEMPS...CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND 1IN OR LESS ON GRASSY SURFACES FAR W
AND ACROSS THE E MARSHALL COUNTY DOWN THROUGH SUMMIT.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR DIMINISHING SHOWERS N TO S THURSDAY WITH HIGHS
AGAIN ONLY IN THE 40S FOR MOST. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME SHRA
NEARING FROM THE SW...MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE AS TEMPS
RISES INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MONDAY. THEN
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS DIVERGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH THE GFS
BRINGING IN A BRIEF RIDGE AND THEN ANOTHER TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF
ENDS THE PATTERN OF SPLIT FLOW AND KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.

WITH PRECIP LINGERING THROUGH THE WEEKEND TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED
BELOW NORMAL. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD AT THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED AND
TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT WITH ALL
LOCATIONS BEING AFFECTED. ON THURSDAY...SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND END INTO THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/OCNL IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW LEVEL RH
REMAINS HIGH. CEILINGS SHOULD BECOME VFR AT ABR AND MBG LATER IN THE
DAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TDK



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