Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 240905
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
305 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

A fast moving front will push across the forecast area this morning.
This front will bring about a 6 hour period of stronger winds to the
area starting around 8 am and continuing through early afternoon. A
wind advisory is in effect. Will keep the advisory in place, but the
strongest winds look to be fairly brief with the frontal passage
then tapering off fairly quickly.

Watching the radar trends and latest model runs, feel any
precipitation should stay in ND. However, will keep some small pops
going mostly across the far northeast portion.

Temperatures today again will be very mild with good mixing along
the front. This front however is not bringing in very cold air, but
high temps should be generally a bit cooler than Thanksgivings
record setting day. Do not expect any records today, but temps will
still be running 15-25 degrees above normal.

Mostly clear skies expected tonight along with wind speeds less than
10 mph as high pressure settles in.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

The large scale upper level pattern will feature a western CONUS
ridge that gradually slides over the central CONUS by early next
week. This pattern will feature above normal temperatures and dry
conditions. In fact, as Monday rolls around a strong southwesterly
flow/warm air advection pattern sets up and temperatures are again
expected to rise to into the 50s and 60s (some 20 to 25 degrees
above normal for this time of the year). It looks like a bit of a
pattern change Tuesday through the end of the week. Late
Monday/Tuesday, models suggest a large scale upper level trough will
slide across the region, the best forcing however, will remain north
of our area so a dry forecast persists. RELATIVELY cooler air will
filter in behind the front with highs topping out somewhere in the
40s Tuesday (still around 10 degrees above normal for this time of
the year). A closed low pressure system develops over the southwest
CONUS and tracks across the southern plains states Wednesday,
quickly followed by a long wave trough dropping in from the
northwest on Thursday. Still, very little chance of any accumulating
precipitation is forecast for our CWA at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Friday. An isolated rain shower or two may occur Friday
morning, mainly across the northern part of the area. Due to
uncertainty of the rain occurring, have opted to not mention it in
any of the TAFs at this time. Look for northwest winds to
increase into the 15 to 35 knot range on Friday, with some locally
higher gusts possible. The winds will begin to diminish during the
late afternoon hours.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ this morning to 4 PM CST
     /3 PM MST/ this afternoon for SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-
     033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Scarlett
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Parkin


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