Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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907
FXUS63 KABR 200552 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 912 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Radar echoes were increasing this evening from the southwest
along with visibilities dropping at several locations along with
webcams. Thus, forecast looks good with definite snow along with 3
to 7 inches additional accumulation by morning. Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 557 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Snow is ongoing across the central, and portions of the western CWA
as of 20Z between low pressure to the south and high pressure to the
north. As a stronger low pushes out of Colorado and across the
Central Plains, expect to see another, and somewhat more intense,
area of snow track from west to east across the CWA tonight into
Tuesday morning. The models are in good agreement with indicating
there will be some heavier bands of snow, mainly somewhere from the
southwestern to the eastern CWA overnight. Snow amounts will vary
with this banding potential, but in general, it looks like another 3
to 6 or maybe 7 inches is not out of the question tonight. Light
snow will linger across at least the central and eastern CWA Tuesday
morning, then should come to an end by early afternoon as the
surface high settles in over the region.

Well below normal temperatures will be the rule in the short term,
with lows tonight in the single digits below and above zero, along
with wind chills in the teens below zero. Highs on Tuesday will be
in the 8 to 12 degree range across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

By Tuesday night, the dominating 500mb low over much of northeastern
Canada will have a trough spread out from the west coast through the
northern plains and down through much of Mexico. This trough will
remain mostly in place through Thursday night. Expect dry weather to
continue Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This will be as the
sfc high over the southwestern half of South Dakota shifts over our
forecast area by midday Wednesday, and moves into MN and MI through
Thursday, while extending a ridge back across our area.

The chance for snow Thursday afternoon-evening has shifted farther
west. Our previous forecast had it just clipping our eastern
counties as low pressure deepens across eastern CO and we see the
impact of the deep western trough, with plenty of moisture swings up
across the east half of SD. Even though the DGZ is up in the
moisture off the GFS, the near surface conditions and an overall
warmer NAM solution may bring about a mixed bag of precipitation
south of ATY Thursday afternoon. There is plenty of room for changes
between now and then, but will include it for now.

Dry weather should return for Friday through Sunday. Near normal
temperatures may also return as early as Saturday, and continue into
Monday, topping out near 30 degrees each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Snow will continue through the night ending quickly through
Tuesday morning as an upper level low pressure trough moves across
the region. Ceilings and vsbys will also be IFR/MVFR with this
system. Ceilings will rise on Tuesday as the snow ends and become
VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Tuesday for
     SDZ003>005-009-010.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for SDZ006>008-
     011-018>023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Tuesday for
     SDZ015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Mohr



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