Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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123
FXUS63 KABR 230549 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1149 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 901 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Still snowing across most of the cwa this evening. Radar showing
enhanced echoes lifting north this evening. Thus, snowfall amounts
of 2 to 5 inches still look fine. Snow will move out after
midnight. May cancel a few counties out west early.

UPDATE Issued at 552 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Snow is moving northward across the CWA and will be approaching the
Hwy 12 corridor in the next hour or so. Visibility has been down to
3/4SM at times in various obs, so the snow rates are pretty decent.
Have been making slight forecast edits throughout the day to account
for the slower onset of snow, more so for northern areas of the CWA.
Overall, the snow amounts have not changed much and still expecting
a general 2 to 5 inches in the advisory area. The slower onset
though did lead to a longer end time for the northern segment of the
Winter Weather Advisory, which will now be at 09Z. Models agree in
keeping snowfall across the northern CWA longer into the night.
Current radar imagery does show moderate to sometimes heavy snow
bands working their way northward across southeast SD and should be
affecting the southeast CWA over the next few hours. This is in line
with where the heaviest snow is forecast over our CWA, so perhaps
things are panning out quite well for the time being.

For Friday, surface high pressure will build east across the area,
bringing dry conditions and light winds by the afternoon hours.
Current forecast highs are in the lower 20s, but will once again
have to consider the effects of snow cover and light winds and may
have to lower temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

An upper trough will dominate the extended forecast. Numerous
shortwaves will eject out of the trough over the next week. When
coupled with sfc low pressure, enough forcing will be generated to
see some decent snow totals. The main system of concern is still the
low that moves through the Plains on Thursday. Currently forecast
movement of the sfc low and associated upper low will keep most of
the snow across the southern and eastern cwa. Areas along and east
of I-29 could see 3 to 5 inches of fresh snow with 1 to 3 inches
from the James valley to the Missouri River. Before the region
saturates, a brief period of freezing drizzle may affect areas from
Pierre to Aberdeen on Saturday morning. The system will be quick
moving, exiting on Sat evening.

High pressure at the sfc will keep the remainder of the period
mostly dry. Temperatures will remain below average through end of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Light snow will end early this morning as the responsible
upper level low pressure trough moves on. Otherwise, IFR/MVFR
ceilings will lift tonight into early Friday with conditions
becoming VFR at all locations.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for SDZ005>008-010-
     011.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     SDZ016>023-036-037.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Mohr



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