Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 292017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
317 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Weak high pressure will remain over the area for the next 24 hours,
keeping conditions dry across the region. Winds will generally be
out of a south to southeasterly direction in the 5 to 15 mph range.
Temperatures will be fairly mild, with lows tonight in the 30s and
highs on Thursday mainly in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Thursday night on will continue our trend of lows in the mid 30s to
low 40s, and highs in the 50s and 60s. Will start off Thursday night
with a 500mb ridge temporarily in place, squeezed between lows
across NV and MO. While showers and thunderstorms will be possible
closer to the 500mb over the southwestern states, mainly dry weather
will prevail across SD/west central MN. Steady dry east to northeast
winds will continue at the sfc through Saturday.

The best chance of precipitation through the period will be later
Monday into early Wednesday. The 500mb low that was over NV will
shift across KS-TX Monday morning (with precip getting as close as
southeastern SD), before exiting across the southeastern states. The
sfc low will remain well to our south. While there will be a sfc low
crossing south central Canada Sunday morning, it looks dry on the
southern end.

Will keep thunderstorm mention out of the forecast for Monday
through Wednesday. Will continue to watch out for later Monday into
Tuesday as the next stacked sfc-500mb low shifts east of the
Rockies. Tuesday afternoon-evening have 60-80 percent pops going for
this system. As temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s Wednesday
morning, there could even be a mix of rain and snow over our
northwestern counties. With warm ground temperatures and only slight
chance pops, do not expect any accumulations at this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

For the most part, VFR conditions will prevail across the area
through midday Thursday. The exception will be across the far
eastern CWA, where there is the potential for some MVFR cigs to
develop late tonight into Thursday morning.




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