Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 020236 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
936 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SEE NO REASON TO CHANGE/UPDATE THINGS TONIGHT. ONSET TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FAR WESTERN /WEST RIVER/
FORECAST ZONES MAY BE A COUPLE OF HOURS FAST...BUT OVERALL...CAN`T
ARGUE WITH THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THINGS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE LEE OF THE BLACK HILLS
COULD BE SPREADING INTO DEWEY/STANLEY/JONES COUNTIES BY 05Z. THE
OTHER NOTEWORTHY AREA OF 700HPA WAA/850HPA MOISTURE POOLING
APPEARS TO BE LINING UP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA/SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE LARGER SYNOPTIC
SCALE LOW LEVEL JET IS POINTING. AS MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING OVER
MONTANA AND WYOMING /AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT/ LIFTS EAST
NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...FULLY
EXPECT /AS DID THE PREVIOUS SHIFT/ TO SEE ROBUST NEW CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OUT ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND EVENTUALLY
WORKING OVER ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DURING
THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MID-LEVEL WAA OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

THERE WILL BE TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND HI-RES MODELS ALL SHOW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OUT WEST BY THIS EVENING HEADING EAST
INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A STRONG LLJ...PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DECENT SHEAR...EXPECT THE
MODELS TO BE ACCURATE AND INCREASED CHANCES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE NEXT ISSUE WILL BE THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS LATER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STILL HAVE
MOISTURE AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING...WITH BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
UP TO 50 KNOTS ALONG WITH CAPES UP TO 3000 J/KG. DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE/FRONTAL ZONE SETS UP.
WITH ALL OF THE FACTORS IN PLACE...EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS TO
OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FOR LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY. SHAVED OFF POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY
AND MAY BE ABLE TO CUT THEM BACK MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PLAINS STATES...AND PLENTY OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THIS PATTERN.
THE LOW THEN CLOSES OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS...AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS RETURNS TO A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD BE DRY INITIALLY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY NORTHERLY WINDS INFLUENCE THE AREA. HOWEVER...A TRAIN OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPS THE
FORECAST LOADED WITH CHANCE POPS. PERHAPS A BREAK IN THE ACTION
LATER FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS...ALONG WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF TERMINALS...MOST LIKELY THE KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS BETWEEN
00Z AND 12Z...AND THEN THE KABR AND KATY TERMINALS BETWEEN 12Z
TUESDAY AND 21Z TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MVFR
CIGS/VISBIES DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT PROBABILITIES
ARE STILL FAIRLY LOW FOR SEEING THIS HAPPEN...SO WILL LEAVE TAFS
VFR AND MONITOR TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN


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