Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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205
FXUS63 KABR 290852
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
352 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Just a few patches of light rain remaining across central/south
central SD early this morning as the main area of low pressure is
well south of the region. Plenty of mid and high level cloud cover
across the CWA, but over the next few hours trends could be towards
clearing skies over the northwest CWA. Have therefore added some
patchy fog to the forecast for the early morning hours in that area.
Elsewhere, the trend for today should be for lessening cloud cover
over the area. Highs will rise into the upper 50s to lower 60s for
most locations, with a southeast breeze.

Dry conditions are expected through the rest of the short term
period with highs generally in the 50s to around 60 degrees both
Thursday and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

The period opens with an upper trough dipping down into the Dakotas.
However, this trough is still in the northern stream of the jet,
while most of the energy remains in the southern stream. This means
that while there may be some showers associated with enhanced
shortwave activity, moisture availability under a sfc high is quite
minimal so any precip will be very light Friday night. The remainder
of the weekend is looking dry. Models are converging on a more
northerly southern jet Monday through Wednesday. Both the ECMWF and
the GFS vertically stack a low and move it across the Plains. The
ECMWF remains a tad farther south with both the sfc and upper lows,
but still moves precip into the region. The GFS has shifted the low
farther north and would bring more rain to northern SD.

Temperatures will be above average for the period with highs
potentially approaching 70 over the weekend and into Monday.
Superblend maintains more conservative warmest highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight
and Wednesday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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