Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 192042
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
342 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SURFACE TROF MOVING THROUGH THE CWA NOW. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT ARE RATHER WEAK THANKS TO LIMITED
LIFT...THOUGH THE INVERSION IS WEAKENING THANKS TO MID LEVEL
COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION.

GRADIENT WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD.

ANOTHER TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SATURDAY...SHIFTING LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND A
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOOD MIXING WITH H85 READINGS IN
THE +12 TO +14 RANGE...MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM THE LOW 30S TO
UPPER 40S AND BUFKIT MIXED DOWN TOOL AVERAGE BETWEEN 20G30KT.
THUS...EXPECTING MILD/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY.

BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SINKS DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE EJECTING UPPER LEVEL LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY THAN
BEFORE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW MUCH ENERGY AND MOISTURE THE
LOW WILL HAVE AS IS MOVES INTO THE RIDGE. DID NOT MAKE MAJOR
CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH POPS. WARMER TEMPS LATER IN THE WEEK
LOOK GOOD AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW HOLDS AFTER
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THE MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK WILL BREAK UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE STRATUS CLEARS ALL
SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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