Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260539 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED NICELY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE CWA AS COLD CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THE CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS AS TEMPS BEGIN TO FALL THANKS TO FRESH
SNOW COVER AND DECREASING WINDS. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO WHILE A NORTHERLY BREEZE IS
MAINTAINED. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 20 BELOW TO 30
BELOW ZERO FOR MANY AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SLIGHTLY COLDER READINGS IN THE SISSETON HILLS
REGION. HAVE THEREFORE ISSUED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE COLD
CANADIAN SFC HIGH DOMINATES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...KEEPING VERY
COLD TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
DEPARTS. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS WHICH
WILL ARRIVE BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WHEN THE PERIOD OPENS...IT`LL BE COLD...BUT NOT AS COLD AS SOME OF
THESE RECENT COLD SNAPS. GENERALLY SPEAKING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO DAY-TIME READINGS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH NIGHT-TIME READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ABOVE ZERO. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION
IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
WITH COLDER AIR ONCE AGAIN WORKING INTO THE CWA AT THAT TIME. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST IS VOID OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EXCEPT FOR
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHEN THERE IS SOME HINT OF A SYSTEM LIFTING
ENEWD OUT OF THE ROCKIES ONTO THE PLAINS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS STILL
BASICALLY DRY OVER THIS CWA AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL ARE BRINGING MORE
ENERGY/PRECIP FARTHER NORTH AND OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
WAA/OVER-RUNNING PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. SUPERBLEND
POPS ARE STILL SIDING WITH THE DRIER ECMWF...WITH MEAGER SLT CHC
POPS COVERAGE RELEGATED TO THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ TO 10 AM CST /9 AM
     MST/ THURSDAY FOR SDZ003>006-009-010-016>018.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...WISE







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