Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 280256 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
956 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Issued at 943 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Water vapor loop shows s/ws lined up in northwest flow aloft
across Montana and Idaho heading this way. Not a real good set
up over this cwa right now for precipitation (limited low level
jet support and the best low level moisture setting up west of the
cwa). Nevertheless...decent upper level jet streak working
through the region and likely adequate uvv`s with each shortwave
for perhaps some isolated to scattered elevated showers and
thunderstorms mainly across the missouri river valley and west
river counties with each passing wave over the next appx 24 hours.
little in the way of changes made to the tonight/Thursday period.
Updates are out.

UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Showers and thunderstorms have developed over western South
Dakota thanks to an upper level shortwave. With fairly stable
conditions east of the Missouri River, believe the convection should
dissipate in north central SD. There is better instability along and
south of I-90 where stronger storms are possible. With high values
of DCAPE, believe gusty winds are possible with any thunderstorm.

A secondary shortwave, along with a weak 25 knot LLJ will bring the
potential for additional storms late tonight through the morning
hours on Thursday. Locations along and west of the Missouri River
valley will have the best potential of seeing storms.

Yet another shortwave will cross the region on Friday. With a
surface high pressure over the Great Lakes region, storms may affect
most of the CWA due to increasing LLM and instability.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

A building upper level ridge will shift east through the weekend
while a trough moves into the Pacific Northwest region. Generally
speaking, precipitation chances remain low, although models do try
to show some weak energy ahead of the main trough riding over the
ridge and potentially kicking of some storms Sunday night/Monday.
Uncertain of the severe potential as current model runs only show
modest cape/shear profiles. By early next week the upper low will
move east...tracking across central Canada...and dampening the ridge
over the north central CONUS. Most of the energy/highest POPs will
remain north of this CWA. A general warming trend can be expected
through the long term forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Precip shield of mainly light to moderate rain shower activity
rolling into the KMBG terminal. Moderate rain shower and embedded
thunderstorm activity is heading into KPIR at this time as well.
Precipitation should not last very long at either terminal. KABR
and KATY are expected to remain dry over the entire TAF valid
period. VFR weather will be the prevailing flight category as north
northeast winds switch to the east overnight.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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