000
FXUS63 KABR 160849
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
349 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD OVER
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WITH A WEST TO EAST FLOW ALOFT...THIS
MOISTURE GRADIENT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA THROUGH THE
DAY. THE NAM12 IS SUGGESTING MU-CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG
ALONG WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPE IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE EXCEEDS 600 J/KG WHICH IS SUGGESTIVE
OF AT LEAST SEVERE HAIL. THAT SAID...THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT
FORCING MECHANISM MAY LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS.

A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER
TONIGHT...WITH BASICALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THAT SAID...WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAY RESULT IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA ON
MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT...REMAINING DOMINANT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND ACROSS THE STATE...THOUGH NONE OF THEM LOOK
TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL JUST BE EXITING TO THE EAST WHEN THE
PERIOD STARTS...WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE
AREA...LOOKING TO JUST EXIT THE CWA AT THE VERY END OF THE
PERIOD. IT WILL BE TYPICAL OF AN UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY
INCREASING EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK
LIKE THE TWO DAYS WHERE THE MID LEVEL CAP MAY HINDER STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT AT THIS TIME...WILL JUST STICK CLOSE TO THE
ALLBLEND WHICH KEEPS A SCHC/CHC POP IN MAINLY FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...WILL SEE
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
TERMINALS INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUING. RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOMEWHAT
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES TO POOL ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND COMBINE WITH INCOMING MID TO UPPER LVL
ENERGY FROM THE WEST TO TOUCH OFF SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. CONTINUED WITH VCTS MENTION FOR KPIR BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCOMING FEATURE...AND ADDED A RAIN
SHOWER TEMPO GROUP TO KATY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. LEFT KMBG AND KABR TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW AND WILL
REEVALUATE POTENTIAL PRECIP AND TIMING FOR THEM IN FUTURE TAF
ISSUANCES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN