Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 290525 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WITH SMALL TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...HAVE ADDED IN SOME FOG EAST IN THE
CWA FOR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON. EC/GFS 12Z RUNS ARE
INDICATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CWA THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA. WITH NO FORCING AND NO
LLJ OVER THIS CWA THOUGH HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE HI-RES CAMS WHICH
KEEP ALL PRECIP NORTH AND EAST.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THIS
RIDGE. WITH GOOD MIXING AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A SFC
TROUGH...SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER ON SUNDAY AS WELL
WITH MIN RH FALLING TO AROUND 20. WARM TEMPS ALOFT WILL CAP SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SHAPING UP TO BE VERY WARM TO HOT WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE SHOWING 850 MB TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE +20S
CELSIUS THROUGHOUT...WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND 90S.
MODELS DO SHOW A SFC TROUGH PASSAGE MONDAY...BUT VARY A BIT ON
STRENGTH. EC SHOWS THE TROUGH BASICALLY WASHING OUT AND BECOMING NON
EXISTENT BY THE TIME IT REACHES EASTERN SD WHILE THE GFS BRINGS IT
ALL THE WAY EAST INTO MN. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH
THE SFC TROUGH WHEREAS THE EC IS DRY. CURRENT SUPERBLEND POPS GAVE
DRY CONDITIONS WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT CHANCES ALONG THE CAPPING
INVERSION ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS LOOK TO HEAT UP AND DRY
OUT HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HIGH LEVEL SMOKE ALONG WITH SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
HIGH DEW POINTS...EXPECT SOME LIGHT FOG TO FORM LATER
TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING AT ABR AND ATY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...PARKIN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.