Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 181803 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1203 PM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Aviation discussion updated below for 18Z TAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1022 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Updated sky cover for today to account for the area of stratus
sinking south across the eastern CWA. Otherwise, will be looking
at mostly sunny skies today with breezy and gusty northwest winds.
Highs will range from around 30 degrees across the far northeast
CWA to the low 40s over the southwest CWA. Continue to lean on the
higher end of available guidance in regards to wind speeds today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 248 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

The 500mb pattern will feature a trough just to our east, pushing
across southeastern Canada and the New England states through
Monday, with a ridge over the west slowly moving overhead through
Sunday evening before becoming more zonal. Dry and cool high
pressure will build into the region, with northwest winds becoming
breezy this afternoon. Temperatures will range from the upper 20s
over western Minnesota, to the low 40s across south central South
Dakota. A few gusts of 30 to 35 mph will be possible over eastern
South Dakota and western Minnesota. Expect slightly below normal
temperatures, and relative humidity values above 40 percent. This
will bring above high grassland fire danger for most of the area
west of the Missouri River.

Under a mostly clear sky, temperatures will fall into the into the
teens to low 20s. The sfc ridge will be across eastern SD and our
western MN counties around 06Z, and just to our east by daybreak
Sunday. Southwesterly winds will return late tonight into Sunday,
with temperature rising into the mid 40s to mid 50s. Mild
temperatures will continue through Monday, with dry weather
continuing through the period.

Will be watching the next Canadian sfc low over British Columbia and
Alberta Sunday afternoon, that moves into south central Canada
Sunday night. This will bring a weak trough across the eastern
Dakotas Sunday night through Monday. At this point, little impact is
anticipated. Increasing winds out of a more westerly direction
Monday afternoon, with temperatures jumping into the 50s across most
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

Compared to 24 hours ago, there isn`t much change in the model
solutions in the out periods. 925hpa thermal progs for Thursday are
a degree or two cooler this morning, and a handful of degrees warmer
on Friday. Still thinking the previous shift`s cooler than guidance
on high pressure nights and warmer than guidance on days when strong
low level waa is occurring seems reasonable. Superblend guidance
this morning is similar to what Friday dayshift adjusted to. Still
dealing with northwest flow the entire forecast period, with the
GFS/ECMWF and Canadian all taking turns producing light, short-lived
precipitation chances from Friday through Saturday. Doesn`t look all
that favorable, at this time, for widespread meaningful
precipitation over the cwa in the days 3 through 7 timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017

MVFR CIGs have cleared KATY and they, as well as the rest of the
terminals, will be looking at mostly VFR conditions through the
TAF forecast period. There may be a few lake effect lower clouds
that affect KMBG and KPIR this afternoon, but will leave mention
as FEW in the TAFs for the time being. Breezy/gusty northwest
surface winds will subside at sunset.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...TMT



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