Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 310911
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
411 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY

WARM ADVECTION/LOW LEVEL JET LINE OF STORMS PUSHING RAPIDLY TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW IS POSITIONED BACK TOWARDS THE MO
RIVER...AND THE UPPER TROF AXIS IS POSITIONED BACK IN WY. WHILE
THE SURFACE LOW/TROF IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE FAR EASTERN
CWA...COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
THE REGION. THE FAR EASTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A FAVORABLE
SHEAR PROFILE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND THE REST OF THE CWA WILL
REMAIN CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE. LOSS TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL REMOVE
THE THREAT OF STORMS...HOWEVER CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROF REMAINS OVERHEAD. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
MOVES IN MONDAY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY. TUESDAY WILL SEE WARMER READINGS UNDER A WARM ADVECTION
REGIME.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE MODELS AGREE WELL IN THE LONG TERM WITH KEEPING IT MAINLY DRY
ALONG WITH A COOL DOWN. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
THEN TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER INTO THURSDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COOL FRONT SWEEP FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THUS...WARMER AIR AND SUNSHINE IN ADVANCE OF THIS WILL BRING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA. AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA/COOL FRONT PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO MAINLY THE 70S FOR FRIDAY CONTINUING
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HAVE IN A FEW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY EARLY WITH THE SURFACE
LOW AND COOL FRONT.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS MAINLY THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FAR EASTERN CWA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.




&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.