Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 272036
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

ITS BEEN DIFFICULT TO GET ANY OBS TO REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS CORSON AND DEWEY COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN AT THE
GRAND RIVER RAWS SITE. WILL LEAVE ADVISORY IN PLACE THOUGH AS
SPEEDS ARE RATHER CLOSE AND AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS IS LIKELY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. AREAS RIGHT ALONG CWA BORDER IN UNR AREA HAVE
SEEN ADVISORY SPEEDS SO THERE ARE LIKELY SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CWA SEEING IT. OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PULLS OUT.
NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT AND BRING
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO MAINLY ND AND NORTHERN SD. UPSTREAM
RADARS SHOW SCT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN DAKOTAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW. TEMPS ARE MUCH COLDER UPSTREAM
WITH SEVERAL AREAS IN THE 30S...AND EVEN SEEING A FEW OBS
REPORTING SNOW ALONG THE ND/MT BORDER. THIS COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE
OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST.
ALTHOUGH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND WINDS WILL STAY UP
OVERNIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING A FREE FALL IN TEMPS. MOST AREAS SHOULD
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO PERHAPS LOW 40S.

WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY ON TUESDAY AS COLDER AIR SPILLS SOUTH OVER
THE AREA. HIGHS WILL STAY COOL WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES PUSHING EAST INTO MN. SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS LOOK
TO GET PRETTY COLD AND HAVE LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES. SHOULD SEE
LOWS IN THE 20S WITH THE JAMES VALLEY PERHAPS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S. WILL HAVE TO WATCH INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY STEADY TEMPS OUT A BIT
TOWARDS MORNING.

MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH VARYING
SPEEDS NOTED IN MODELS. THEY ALL ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT QPF
ASSOCIATED WITH IT THOUGH...SO HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

TWO THINGS REALLY STAND OUT IN THE OUT PERIODS THIS GO ROUND.
FIRST...IT`S GOING TO BE REALLY COLD ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA/WC MN WAKING UP FRIDAY MORNING. AN ARCTIC COLD BLAST OF AIR
WILL RATCHET LOW TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING EASILY DOWN
INTO AT LEAST THE 20S IF NOT COLDER FOR LOW TEMPS. THEN...ON
FRIDAY...DON`T LOOK FOR MUCH TEMPERATURE RECOVERY...ESPECIALLY IF
THERE ARE ANY LOW CLOUDS TO HAVE TO EAT AWAY FIRST. MIXING WINDS
WILL NOT BE ALL THAT HELPFUL FRIDAY EITHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION. 925HPA THERMAL PROGS TOP OUT AT PEAK HEATING/MIXING ON
FRIDAY AROUND 0C TO -2C ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA/WC MN
WHICH TRANSLATES TO MID/UPPER 30S FOR HIGH TEMPS.

SECOND...FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY A NEARLY 30HPA RETURN FLOW PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA.
COMBINED WITH 0.5KM WIND SPEEDS PROGGED BETWEEN 35 TO 45
KNOTS...AND THINKING IT WILL BE HEADLINE WINDY ON SATURDAY. WHAT
IMPACT THIS WIND FORECAST WILL HAVE ON FIRE WEATHER REMAINS TO BE
SEEN. BUT...IF MODELS END UP BEING A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC ON
RETURN FLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION NORTHWARD INTO THIS
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR SATURDAY AS WELL.

BEYOND THAT...IT SEEMS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE LONGER
RANGE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS IS FOR ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROF TO
BEGIN MARCHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CONUS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND. AT
THAT POINT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

NO MORE VIRGA NOW. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SATURATION HAS KICKED IN
AND RAIN REACHING THE GROUND AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD GO AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
REST OF TODAY. FLYING WEATHER CATEGORY SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON/INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR MOST TERMINALS...EXCEPT
PERHAPS KMBG. VFR/MVFR LOW STRATUS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW
MAKING A BEE-LINE FOR THE KMBG TERMINAL AND WILL LIKELY REACH
THERE BEFORE 00Z. SREF/RAPID REFRESH LOW CLOUD PROGS ALL POINT TO
VFR/MVFR STRATUS BARRELING DOWN ACROSS ALL FOUR TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES FALLING OUT
OF THIS STRATUS...BUT GENERALLY LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO
ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUD DECK. ALSO...ALL FOUR TERMINALS ARE NOW IN
POST FRONTAL NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH KPIR ALREADY BEGINNING TO PICK
UP IN TERMS OF WIND SPEED. THE OTHER THREE TERMINALS WILL ALSO SEE
A GRADUAL UP-TICK IN SPEEDS/GUSTS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR CORSON-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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