Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 200903

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
403 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

An upper level jet and weak shortwave is currently producing light
pcpn along the ND/SD border this morning. While radar returns are
fairly good, the lower levels of the atmosphere are fairly dry
per the 0Z KABR sounding. QPF amounts with this system should be
light. Models suggest the pcpn will dissipate during the mid
morning hours with dry conditions for the rest of the day. A
secondary cold front currently over southern Canada will slide
southward later this afternoon. This front east/west running cold
front should be located over this CWA between 0-6Z Tuesday. Dry,
northerly flow behind the front should keep the NE portion of the
CWA dry tonight. A stronger shortwave, along with upper level jet
support, will cross the SW portion of the CWA later tonight with
accumulating snow possible. The 0Z model runs has pushed the snow
further south with the heaviest now occurring along the NE/SD
border. This system should exit the region Tuesday morning with
dry conditions expected through Tuesday evening. Return flow will
develop by Tuesday night with WAA pcpn possible for the Missouri
River valley. The WAA and strong southerly winds will push
northeastward across the region on Wednesday. Based on thermal
profiles, pcpn should begin as snow with a gradual transition over
to light rain in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

Compared to 24 hours ago, the 00Z ECMWF solution has shifted its qpf
footprint further north. In fact, it brings deformation zone-forced
precipitation into this cwa. In contrast, the 00Z Canadian and GFS
solutions have trended their deformation zone precipitation areas
south and east away from this cwa. Suffice it to say, the chances of
seeing measurable rain over this cwa between Thursday morning and
Friday evening are pretty good, even if the models still need to
further refine their solutions and come into better agreement with
each other and in terms of run-to-run stability of track/timing.

Low level thermal progs in the deterministic solutions and ensemble
guidance still points to temperatures being near to above normal
through at least Thursday night. Friday/Friday night appears to be a
brief transition period to temperatures near to slightly below
normal behind this mature/occluding upper low pressure system
departing to the east at the end of the week. During next weekend,
it appears the cwa will be getting into another period of low level


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Monday as mid and high level clouds move over. Otherwise, there is
expected to be some p6sm light rain showers at or in the vicinity of
MBG and ABR tonight into early Monday.




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