Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 080539
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.
ADJUSTED POPS AND SKY TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...OTHER FORECAST FIELDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST JUST
NORTHWEST OF WATERTOWN. THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM THAT IS
PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A SHORTWAVE IS ALSO
ROTATING DOWN THE UPPER FLOW OVER CENTRAL ND. NOT MUCH TO NOTE
WITH THE WAVE RIGHT NOW AS THERE ARE JUST SOME GENERAL STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE IS SOUTH OF
THIS CWA...BUT THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE
STORM NEAR KATY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND STRONG SHEAR.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AROUND 3Z. A WEAKER WAVE
MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THESE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. DRIER AIR
THEN MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TODAY
WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. BY
WEDNESDAY TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

AT THIS POINT...IT WOULD APPEAR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WOULD
BE THE BEST IDENTIFIABLE TIME PERIOD FOR BEST PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. HEALTHY
LOOKING LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS A BIT MORE MUDDY AND DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM ALLBLEND POPS...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE OVERDONE WITH POPS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CANNOT SAY I CAN REALLY PINPOINT A
TIME PERIOD THOUGH WHERE THE FORECAST CAN REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
GIVEN THE DISAGREEMENT IN SHORTWAVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WARM TEMPS TO START THINGS OFF WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S. TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK MODELS
ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...THUS ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO SPILL SOUTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. EC THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WHEREAS THE GFS IS LESS AMPLIFIED.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE REGION IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...WITH LOW PRESSURE TO
THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS PLACES A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL AGAIN BECOME GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTS TO 20 OR 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED. ALSO...SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
PEAK HEATING HOURS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE RESIDES. DUE TO THE LOW
ARIEL COVERAGE...DID NOT MENTION IN THIS TAF UPDATE...BUT MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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