Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 012331 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
631 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER FAR NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AFTER 0Z. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IS LOCATED. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. LIMITED
INSTABILITY IN THE EASTERN CWA SHOULD LEAD TO MORE SHOWERS THAN
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST SIMPLE AND CONTINUE MENTIONING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME MODELS SHOW IN ILL-DEFINED
SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WHILE OTHERS
HOLD CONVECTION OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH LITTLE
CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN HIGH END CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT ON FRIDAY THANKS TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

AN ACTIVE EARLY PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/UPPER TROF
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.  THE GREATEST MID LEVEL ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.  BY MONDAY MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE
EXITED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH DRIER...COOLER SFC HIGH PRESSURE
FILTERING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. STORMS ENTER THE PICTURE AGAIN LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS MORE S/W ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES LOOK NEAR NORMAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...TRENDING TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH BETTER CHANCES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. MORE
PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL...BUT
LOCATION AND TIMING ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WILL STICK WITH A
VCSH MENTION FOR NOW UNTIL THINGS BECOME MORE CERTAIN. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CIGS TOWARD MORNING AS WELL...BUT
AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH...SO HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT FOR THE
TIME BEING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...PARKIN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.