Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 160222 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
822 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE STARTED RECEIVING REPORTS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE VERY FAR EASTERN FORECAST ZONES. TRAVEL
CONDITIONS SAID TO BE PRETTY BAD OUT THERE. AREA COUNTY OFFICIALS
AGREED THAT A BLIZZARD WARNING UPGRADE WAS NEEDED...SO SEVERAL
COUNTIES IN WINT WX ADV HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO BLIZZARD WARNING AND
TIME OF BOTH HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD FORECAST. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

OF COURSE MAIN ISSUE IS DEALING WITH WHATS LEFT OF STORM SYSTEM
HEADED NORTHEAST TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MIXED BAG OF
PCPN TYPES SHOULD HAVE MOSTLY ENDED OVER THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE FALLING APART.
THIS BAND AND THE COMBINED WIND IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLESOME GIVEN
THE LOW VISIBILITY BEING REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. PLUS THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW NOW EXPECTED IS HIGHER THAN BEFORE. AFTER LOOKING
AT AREA WEB CAMS...FOR NOW FEEL A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CAN
HANDLE THE SITUATION BUT WILL KEEP ANY EYE ON IT. LIKE MENTIONED
BEFORE THE SNOW BAND SHOULD FALL APART BY EARLY EVENING BUT GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR AWHILE YET. WITH CLOUDS EXTENDING WELL
NORTH INTO CANADA I HAVE DIFFICULTY SEEING ANY REAL REDUCTION
OVERNIGHT AND THUS LOW TEMPS FROM MOS GUIDANCE LOOK WAY TOO COLD.
SIDED MORE WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR BOTH LOWS TNT AND HIGHS ON
TUESDAY.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHT
WINDS AND PRESUMABLY CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALLOW FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. SOME OF
THE MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES...SO MAY SEE
THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO TREND THIS WAY. RETURN FLOW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OVER THE REGION. THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH ALONG
WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPIT OUT SOME LIGHT
SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR NOW.

A PRETTY BENIGN PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST AS WELL. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. SOME HINTS
OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH WORKING ACROSS THE CONUS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SMALL POPS INTO THE FORECAST...BUT CERTAINLY
NOTHING OF SUBSTANTIAL CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

KATY...IFR VISBIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW /ALONG WITH
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS/ WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS
EVENING...LIKELY ENDING AT OR BEFORE 06Z. THEN...PREDOMINANTLY
MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO HANG AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
VALID PERIOD. UNTIL STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT...BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO MVFR VISBIES AT TIMES.

KPIR...MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO HANG AROUND FOR THE ENTIRE TAF
VALID PERIOD. UNTIL STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS SUBSIDE TONIGHT...BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE
TO MVFR VISBIES AT TIMES.

KMBG/KABR...MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO HANG AROUND FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF VALID PERIOD. STRONG NORTH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST TO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLARK-DAY-
     MARSHALL-ROBERTS-SPINK.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CODINGTON-DEUEL-
     GRANT-HAMLIN.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR TRAVERSE.

     BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BIG STONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.