Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 262343 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
543 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY

BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE NOW HEADED INTO THE COTEAU. UNCERTAIN HOW
THE ADDITIONAL TERRAIN HEIGHT WILL IMPACT THIS FEATURE AS RETURNS
PETER OUT AROUND 2KFT AGL. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS YET TO
CAPTURE IT AS WELL. AS TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE CLOUD LAYER CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY COOL...SEEING A CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES.
RETURNS HAVE BEEN GOING ON ALL DAY UPSTREAM WITHOUT MUCH IMPACT TO
VISIBILITY AND THUS ACCUMULATION. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AS WELL...WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF CLEARING OR THINNING
EVIDENT OVER NORTH DAKOTA ON SATELLITE...WITH ASOS PREDOMINANTLY
SHOWING CLOUDS. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP...THOUGH A CRASH
IN TEMPERATURES LIKELY WITH ANY HOLES IN CLOUD COVER THAT DO PASS
THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH FOR SATURDAY...ALLOWING
WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO THE WEST WHICH WILL HELP WITH CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY...ALONG WITH THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

PRECIP CHANCES...PRIOR TO THE NEXT EPISODE OF UPPER LEVEL SPLIT
FLOW PATTERN...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP SEWD
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW /GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES/ TO PRIMARILY THE MO RIVER
VALLEY AND WEST RIVER COUNTIES. EAST-NORTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE
SURFACE/PBL WINDS DURING SAID PERIOD EXPECTED TO AIDE IN LIGHT
SNOW GENERATION. THEN...LATE IN THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW ALONG
AND POST-FRONTAL.

TEMPERATURES...LOOKS LIKE THE REGION WILL BE JUMPING ON THE
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER AGAIN THIS NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT
COULD BE THE "WARMEST" PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED...AS MODELS PROG A
SHARP /925-850HPA/ TEMPERATURE DROP ON SUNDAY THAT DRAGS ARCTIC
COLD AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION THAT IS EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT MODELS PROG SOME LOW LEVEL WAA PRIOR TO THE NEXT COLD FROPA
LATE IN THE WEEK. 12Z GFS/ECMWF DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS A LITTLE
BIT OFF TIMING-WISE WITH THE FROPA AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT
BOTH SHOW ANOTHER COOL DOWN POSSIBLY WAITING IN THE WINGS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH KATY
HAS RECENTLY FALLEN TO 800 FT. CIGS FORECAST RATHER CHALLENGING
OVERNIGHT AS THERE ARE PATCHES OF CLEARING NOTED UPSTREAM...BUT
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF THEY WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES AND
ALSO JUST HOW MUCH EROSION OF LOW CIGS TAKES PLACE. KMBG STANDS TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO GET RID OF LOWER CIGS THIS EVENING AS
SATELLITE SHOWS THEM RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD LINE. HAVE
THEREFORE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CLEARING THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...A BIT HARDER FORECAST BUT TRENDED THINGS TO SCATTERING
OUT BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL LIKELY NEED
TO FINE TUNE THIS SOME FOR THE 06Z TAFS. ALSO...-SN WILL AFFECT
KABR AND KATY THIS EVENING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VSBY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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