Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 151126 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
526 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 523 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Other than a slight chance of rain Friday along and west of the
Missouri River, this period will be dry. The main weather problem
will be the windy conditions Thursday. Along with that will be
elevated fire weather concerns mainly southwest of PIR as
temperatures rise into the low 60s and RH values bottom out around
30 percent.

We will be starting out with the initial cold front well to our
east, across eastern MN and western WI. 850mb temperatures of around
0C will be on the way down this morning, behind a secondary cold
front pushing just to our south around daybreak. 850mb temperatures
will fall bottom out around 21Z, ranging from -2C over our
southwestern counties, to -8C over west central MN. Will need to
continue to monitor the low/MVFR clouds over ND, and how far south
they will be able to sink into SD today. Breezy conditions should be
stuck to the eastern half of the forecast area, out of the northwest
14-20kts with gusts of 20 to 30kts.

Temperatures will vary significantly southwest (60s) to northeast
(upper 30s). The sfc high over much of AK through northwestern
Canada and northern Saskatchewan will consolidate across central
Canada/northern Manitoba by 00Z Thursday, with a ridge extending
south across eastern SD and NE. This ridge will very slowly shift to
the SD/MN border 06-09Z, before moving into MN. Models continue to
show a wind max of around 50kts between 850-900mb. Although these
winds won`t be realized at the surface, we`ll still get some strong
winds behind the exiting sfc ridge, with gusts of 25 to near 35kts
possible. Highlighted this in the HWO, with the focus of strongest
winds west of the Missouri River around daybreak, before slowly
shifting to eastern South Dakota and west central Minnesota by mid
afternoon through Thursday evening. Will have the potential for
higher winds, and did bump up wind gusts closer to the NamDNG, with
does have a ribbon of 35-40kt winds. As noted in the previous
discussion, a Wind Advisory may be needed.

The next sfc trough set up from southern Saskatchewan through eastern
MT Thursday afternoon will slide east, with the trough extending
trough central SD by 06Z Friday. Fcst solutions are pretty
consistent with the trough eastern SD around 12Z Friday, and east of
our counties by 18Z. Relatively light winds will become breezy
again, out of the north, over eastern SD and western MN.


.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

An upper level trough and associated shortwave energy will be over
the region at the beginning of the period, then pushes east of the
area by midday Saturday. Northwest flow then becomes dominant over
the Northern Plains through the remainder of the period.

At the surface, the frontal boundary will be just south and east of
the area, with high pressure approaching from the west/northwest. A
few lingering showers are possible Friday evening across the
southern CWA closest to the front. The high will settle in over the
plains region on Saturday and Saturday night before getting pushed
east by another approaching low pressure system. The boundary with
this system will move through on Monday, but with little in the way
of upper support, expect it to move through dry. High pressure
returns behind the exiting front, and will keep conditions dry
through the end of the period.

Saturday and Tuesday will be the cooler days of the period, with
highs mainly in the 30s. Warmer air will be in place Sunday and
Monday, with highs in the 40s and 50s. Overnight lows will be mainly
in the 20s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 523 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

An area of MVFR cigs will drift southward across the region
today. It is not a solid area of clouds, so cigs will vary from
MVFR to VFR. The low cigs will exit the area by this evening,
then VFR conditions will prevail.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin


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