Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 211852

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
152 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Dry and warm conditions will continue through the short term. Upper
ridging will dominate the pattern. A dry front will move across the
region on Saturday. This front will bring gusty winds that will help
mix down the warmest temps of the period. Highs will climb into the
mid 60s to mid 70s. Some weak shortwave activity will suppress the
ridge on Sunday dropping temps into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Surface high pressure will be moving east of the region on Monday,
with increasing southeasterly winds. Monday itself looks dry, but
will be watching potential for precipitation increasing Monday night
into Tuesday as low pressure organizes over the High Plains. This
low eventually pulls out into the central Plains Tuesday into
Tuesday night, with models showing precipitation spreading northward
into SD. The 12Z run of the EC is a bit further north with precip,
basically covering all of eastern SD and southern MN by 06Z
Wednesday. If later runs of the GFS come into line with the EC run,
then POPs will need to be extended westward Tuesday night, while
being increased as well.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Other than some patchy MVFR fog around KATY early this morning,
VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.




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