Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 260811
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
311 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SO FAR THIS MORNING ONLY SEEING A NARROW AXIS OF ACCAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET AND MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. SEVERAL CAMS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AM...BUT
WITHOUT COMPLETE CONSENSUS...WILL ONLY MAINTAIN LOW END POPS. FOCUS
IS ON THE SYSTEM THAT WILL SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IN FAR
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS BECOMING ELEVATED
AS THEY PUSH INTO WEST RIVER COUNTIES THIS EVENING. ELEVATED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE EAST OVERNIGHT AS A 30-40KT LOW LEVEL JET
NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. FAVORABLE JET
PLACEMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY...WITH A DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTH...WHICH
WILL EFFECTIVELY SHUNT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH AND OUT OF THE CWA
LATE THURSDAY/EARL FRIDAY. OVERALL MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
POPS AND TIMING. SREF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL ONLY
BRING SOME MODEST QPF AMOUNTS TO THE CWA WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR PCPN LATE IN THE PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS LOOKS TO GRADUALLY RELAX AS THE PERIOD
PROGRESSES.  HOWEVER...THAT SAID...A THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS THERMAL RIDGE SHOULD
EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESS CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD. SO THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL GIVEN THE THERMAL RIDGE
ALOFT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

WITH THE LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING TO NEAR THE DEW
POINTS...ABR AND ATY MAY HAVE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH COMING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO
THE PIR AND MBG AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK


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