Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 191727 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1127 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 1011 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Not much in the way of major changes made to the forecast this
morning. Light snow continues across parts of the eastern CWA,
with another area beginning to push over the far western CWA.
Still looking for the brunt of the next wave of snow to come this
evening through the overnight hours.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 349 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Banded snowfall over the next 30 hours will be the main forecast
challenge.

As of 9Z, a narrow band of snow have been ongoing from Pierre, to
Mellette, to Wheaton, MN. Snowfall amounts will likely vary within
this band. Based on webcams, snowfall amounts between a dusting to a
half inch seems possible. Hi-res models continue to suggest this
initial band will be diminish between 12-18Z with flurries possible
for a good portion of the day, especially along and east of the
James River. The western CWA could see light, accumulating snow
through this morning before intensity increases this afternoon.

An upper level trough and surface low pressure system will bring
additional snow later this afternoon in western South Dakota. The
surface low and upper level trough will progress across the region
tonight into Tuesday morning with widespread accumulating snow
expected. Models have been consistent with the heaviest snow
occurring tonight, mainly in our eastern half of the CWA. However a
few CAMS are suggesting multiple bands of snow impacting the region
with widely different snowfall possible. With limited confidence
with the location of the heaviest snow tonight, will make minor
changes to the previous forecast. This system should progress east
of the region on Tuesday with dry conditions possible by Tuesday
afternoon.

With gusty northerly winds, along with a high snow to liquid ratio,
blowing snow can be expected for all areas, even with little
accumulation.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 349 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

During the long term the models maintain some sort of west conus
trof by continuing to drop energy south along the west coast. This
energy then ejects northeast across the central conus. There are
several waves during the period, but the most important one appears
to be the system for Thursday into Friday. The ECMWF tracks this
system further west and north vs the GFS/CMC. Something to keep an
eye on, but for now will maintain model blend solution.  Other
systems are progged to cross the central conus later in the time
period, but for now that activity is progged to mostly miss the
forecast area. Temperatures will start the period below normal, but
then should rebound back to near normal by week`s end.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

Light snow will continue across much of the area this afternoon,
with a secondary stronger area of snow expected to track from west
to east across the area tonight into Tuesday morning. Periods of
MVFR cigs and IFR/MVFR vsbys are likely with the snow.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM CST /2 PM MST/ this afternoon
     to 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Tuesday for SDZ003>005-009-010.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for SDZ006>008-011-018>023.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Tuesday for
     SDZ015>017-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST
     Tuesday for MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin


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