Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 241554 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1054 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

SEVERAL CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY.
HI RES MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING PRECIP IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY...BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA AND I-29 CORRIDOR REGION STILL
ON TRACK TO GET PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. REDUCED POPS DRAMATICALLY
FOR THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS WEST TODAY WHERE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIP WILL BE HAD. KEPT HIGH CHANCES FURTHER EAST WHERE RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIP MOVING NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE FACT THAT SFC
TEMPS ARE STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING IN SOME
SPOTS...THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO OF FREEZING RAIN OR MIXED
PRECIP THIS MORNING. ALSO HAD TO ADJUST SKY COVER AS DRY SLOT
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL SD IS BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE SOUTHWEST CWA MAY ACTUALLY SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE TODAY THANKS TO THE DRY SLOT. HAVE ALSO INCREASED HIGHS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WHERE GOOD MIXING AND VERY WARM 925MB TEMPS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MID TO UPPER 60S DOWN THAT WAY. SHORT TERM TEMP
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BUMPED TEMPS UPWARD. HIGHS A BIT MORE DIFFICULT
IN THE JAMES VALLEY WHERE THERE WILL BE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN
TODAY SO WILL LEAVE ALONE AT THIS TIME. FURTHER EAST...HAVE
DROPPED HIGHS JUST A DEGREE OR TWO AS ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AN INITIAL FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SET UP ALONG A LINE
FROM ABOUT MOBRIDGE TO GETTYSBURG TO MILLER EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. HI RES MODELS ARE ACTUALLY HANDLING THIS
FAIRLY WELL. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR FURTHER PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING MOVES OVERHEAD...ALTHOUGH MODELS DO SPLIT
THE STRONGEST ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND TO THE SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...SO EXPECTING QPF VALUES TO BE PRETTY SMALL. RAIN IS THE
PREDOMINATE PTYPE...ALTHOUGH DRY MID LEVEL AIR OVER THE EASTERN
CWA WILL LIKELY DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGION
INITIALLY. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA...RAIN WILL PROMPTLY COME TO
AN END THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR IS QUICK TO ADVECT IN. THIS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S OVER THIS
REGION.

THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST MOST WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN NORTH...HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST CWA. IF THIS OCCURS A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. WINDS ALSO QUICKLY INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 925 MB
WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST AT OR ABOVE 30 KTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAYS FORECAST REMAINS COOL AND DRY FOR NOW...HOWEVER MODELS
DO SHOW A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTH DAKOTA...AND IF MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW AN INCREASING
TREND...MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING SMALL POPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL
SHIFT EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE REGION ON FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THE PATTERN WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SFC LOW MOVING IN QUICKLY ON SAT NIGHT. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THEN RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE MORE ZONAL FLOW
SETS UP FOR TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF NEAR AVERAGE ON FRIDAY BUT ARE
FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW. A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN MAY OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE SFC LOW BUT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES THIS IS
NOT REFLECTED IN THE SUPERBLEND. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS MUCH
WETTER OVER THE DAKOTAS WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE ENERGY
AND PRECIP FARTHER NORTH AND EAST. ON TUE NIGHT BOTH MODELS
CONVERGE ON A SECOND UPPER LOW/SFC LOW STACKED SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

AN ADVANCING SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE REGION
TODAY...MAINLY NEAR KABR/KATY AS THE WEST GETS DRY SLOTTED. IFR
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT KATY INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
LIFTING. OTHERWISE CIGS WILL BE VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN
HEAVIER SHOWERS. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE





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