Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 190009 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
709 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Issued at 706 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

No major changes planned for the evening forecast. A few
strong thunderstorms are moving into northeast SD. Storms are
expected to dissipate after sunset.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

More or less a carbon copy forecast from the last few days with
northwest flow aloft and cool mid level temperatures resulting in a
northwest breeze, and mainly diabatically driven shower activity.
MLCAPE values are only on the order of 200-500 j/kg - skinny
throughout the profile, so will continue to mention thunder but
severe weather is unlikely. CAM solutions show less coverage and a
concentration that is farther east as compared to yesterday
(Saturday). Otherwise not much of note in the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

The period starts off with a fairly meridional mid level flow across
the conus. However, the pattern starts to flatten out during the
period. Probably the main chance for pcpn will fall into the
Wednesday through Friday time frame.  But, that said, the models are
not particularly complimentary on the small scale details and thus
timing/positioning of ll fronts, etc, is of low confidence. Internal
model blend will suffice for now.

Temperatures will begin the period near to above normal, but then
will trend to below normal for the latter half of the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 706 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period. KATY or KABR may
see an isolated shower or thunderstorm early this evening before




SHORT TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.