Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 200642 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
142 AM CDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Issued at 925 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

Adjusted pops across central SD with light showers sliding
southeast across this region into the early morning hours.
Updated forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 656 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

00z aviation discussion updated below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

A weak upper level disturbance, currently over western SD and
eastern MT will track southeast across the region tonight through
early Thursday morning. This system should bring light pcpn to
central SD, mainly between 6-12z. Canada high pressure will settle
over the region later tonight through Wednesday with seasonal to
slightly below normal temperatures.

The surface high pressure will shift eastward on Thursday night
which allows for WAA over the western Dakotas. The WAA will push
across the region of the CWA on Friday with highs climbing into the
60s and low 70s. With the warm temps and fairly dry airmass, fire
weather will be a concern west river. Winds will shift from the
south to the northwest Thursday afternoon as a front pushes through.
As of now, winds should remain below 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT WED OCT 19 2016

Upper ridging will keep the region dry until Tuesday. On Tuesday
slight chances for precip will enter the forecast as shortwave
activity begins to move through the upper flow. As the ridge
exits to the east on Wednesday, slight chances for showers will
continue, mainly over the east. A broad area of sfc low pressure
will also settle in on Wednesday.

Temperatures under the ridge will be above average for late October
with highs in the 60s. Coolest max temps will occur during the
latter half of the extended with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 141 AM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

Some p6sm light rain is expected to affect the MBG and PIR areas
early this morning along with mvfr ceilings. Also, ABR and ATY may
have some light fog late tonight. Otherwise, expect it to be vfr
through the entire period as surface high pressure moves across
the region.




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