000
FXUS63 KABR 120524 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1224 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.

A LOT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS FILTERED INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING
AS SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED AT ALL LOCATIONS. STRONG
CAPPING ALONG WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OR MORE OF MUCAPE EXISTS ACROSS
THE CWA THIS EVENING. WITH THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WAA WITH THE
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN WY INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS AS EVERYTHING HEADS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO STILL LINE OUT AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SD TONIGHT AND
MAY BE SEVERE AS 0-3KM SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE. THE LATEST HRRR RUN WAS SHOWING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH NOT MUCH
OF A LINE ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. ALREADY
HAVE IN GOOD CHANCES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TONIGHT.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF A
RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS
NEBRASKA TONIGHT...WITH MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND IT TO THE NORTH
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA. THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AND ACROSS NEBRASKA. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA AS
WELL. LOOKING AS THOUGH STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING
AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THEN TRACK
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WHERE THE SET UP WILL BE BETTER FOR HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS. MAY SEE A BOWING FEATURE AFFECT PARTS OF THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWA...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME.

AFTER SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY MORNING...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REGION AND LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS DRY
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS AND THE NAM INDICATE PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHILE THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS DRY. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP A SMALL POP TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVERHEAD AND A TROUGH
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY...AND THERE SHOULD
BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN...WITH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
RISING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT WAVES OF ENERGY KICKING OUT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND RIDING OVER THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...AND THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS DO NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. SO AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW. OF COURSE...TIMING AND INTENSITY OF
THESE WAVES DIFFERS BETWEEN MODELS...SO DID NOT MODIFY THE
ALLBLEND SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE RIGHT AROUND...TO EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH GOOD COVERAGE EXPECTED...INSERTED
SHOWERS AND VICINITY THUNDER AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE BY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT CEILINGS
TO BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH MAYBE SOME REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITY WITH ANY RAINFALL. WILL WATCH FOR ANY THUNDER
EXPECTED AT ANY STATION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN