Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 271614 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1114 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BACK THROUGH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MONTANA. MEANWHILE THE MAIN VORT MAX IS EASILY VISIBLE ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MANITOBA WITH ADDITIONAL SHEARED OUT ENERGY EXTENDING BACK INTO
SASKATCHEWAN. THE HI RES MODELS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS FAR WEST AS CORSON AND
DEWEY COUNTIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NOT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THREAT IN THIS REGION...BUT DID GO AHEAD AND ADD A LOW POP INTO
THE FORECAST. THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA STILL REMAINS. MODERATE INSTABILITY...LIFT
AND STRONG BULK SHEAR WILL STILL LINE UP NICELY. AS PREVIOUSLY
STATED...THE ONLY PARAMETER THAT MAY BE ON THE LOW END IS THE
MOISTURE. EXPECT SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT...HOWEVER
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW DEWPOINTS MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW LCLS IN THE 3K TO 5K FT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
HODOGRAPHS DO CURVE NICELY FROM 0 TO 5 KM. SO CANT RULE OUT THE
TOR THREAT...BUT HAIL AND WINDS ARE DEFINITELY THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREATS. BESIDES THE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...ALL
OTHER FORECAST FIELDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MAIN ISSUES FOR TODAY ARE DETERMINING JUST HOW WARM IT GETS AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND STORM CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CERTAINLY IN PLACE. FIRST
OFF...VERY WARM AIR AT 925/850MB STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL SD
AND AS FAR EAST AS THE JAMES VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. DECENT SOUTHWEST
MIXING WINDS DEVELOP AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO SURPASS 90 DEGREES FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL SD EASTWARD INTO THE JAMES VALLEY. WILL THEN BE
WATCHING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF ND. SVR PARAMETERS ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY DECENT WITH
NEARLY 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVERHEAD BY 00Z THIS EVENING AS
WELL WITH FAVORABLE EXIT REGION OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA. HI
RES CAM SOLUTIONS ALL AGREE ON CONVECTION STARTING IN ND/WESTERN MN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST SD AND
WEST CENTRAL MN AFTER 21Z AND PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TOR PARAMETERS ARE EVEN LOOKING A BIT INTERESTING
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CWA. WHATS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IS JUST HOW FAR WEST THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL
REACH. BY FAR THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NEAR THE I-29 CORRIDOR INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...BUT THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS OF ACTIVITY EVEN
FURTHER WEST. HI RES CAM SOLUTIONS VARY A BIT ON WESTWARD EXTENT OF
STORMS. IT DOES NOT APPEAR CAPPING WILL BE A BIG ISSUE AS MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS ONE MAY EXPECT WITH A HOT AIR
MASS. THE POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. EXPECTING NICE SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED THOUGH BUT DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS 850MB TEMPS STAY ON THE WARM SIDE.
HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STILL RISE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MANY AREAS.
MONDAY LOOKS DRY AS WELL WITH HOTTER TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK INTO
THE AREA. WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN FOR HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY FROM THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS WESTWARD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OUT PERIODS EARLY THIS MORNING. GENERALLY
SPEAKING...STILL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AND...STILL A COUPLE OF
PRECIP CHANCES TO HANG A HAT ON...PRIMARILY TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SO SUPERBLEND POPS WERE
COLLABORATED AROUND THOSE TIME-FRAMES. IN THIS PATTERN...INSTABILITY
STILL LOOKS TOUGH TO COME BY. TUESDAY NIGHT...IF THERE IS ANY
INSTABILITY AROUND FOR THUNDERSTORMS...IT IS PROBABLY SHUNTED OFF TO
THE WEST OF THIS CWA. BUT PERHAPS BY THE TIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY ROLLS AROUND THERE COULD BE A SMALL RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY SPREADING FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FOR THUNDER.

/OUTLOOK: THUS FAR...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME WAFFLING TO IRON OUT BETWEEN THE
GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION PATTERN./

LET SUPERBLEND PICK UP MAX/MIN TEMPS...WITH AN EXPECTATION THAT HIGH
TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE IN THE 70S AND 80S...WHILE LATE
JUNE/EARLY JULY LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE BOTTOMING OUT MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR STILL LOOKS TO RULE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN/NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRY TO GET GOING THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK
THEIR WAY SOUTHEASTWARD...PERHAPS PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE
KABR/KATY TERMINALS. THUNDERSTORM TIMING MAY BE A BIT OFF...STILL
NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THAT ASPECT. ALSO...A COUPLE OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIALLY PACKING STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND SOME LARGE HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL BE CHASING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...SO LOOK FOR WINDS TO SWITCH
AROUND TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING...BECOMING BREEZY
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN



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