Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 271730 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1230 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 1023 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Patchy dense fog is on its way out this morning with only some mid
level clouds remaining. Overall, mostly sunny skies look good
with surface high pressure and light winds. Highs in the 50s and
lower 60s look good. Updated forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Mid level clouds responsible for some light returns an hour or so
ago, however these failed to penetrate much below 3kft. As such have
removed any mention of precipitation. This cloud deck also keeping fog
at bay. I`ll leave in the mention as Watertown and a few other
locations are close to saturation but this morning it shouldn`t be
as widespread an issue as it was the last two mornings.

Thus, anticipate mostly sunny skies and mild temperatures with highs
in the 50s. A lee low begins to develop so low level flow will
become more south/southeasterly across the forecast area, however
speeds are still light.

Models begin to bring in precipitation associated with the next wave
early Tuesday. The general trend with this system mimics the last
two as split flow favors a track south of the CWA and thus
precipitation west river will be fighting dry air and a lack of
support as it moves east.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The pattern of split flow aloft will continue in the extended with
all significant upper lows getting pulled into the southern stream.
Only one sfc low even skirts the western part of the cwa on
Wednesday night. So, the extended looks pretty dry in terms of
widespread precip chances. High pressure will periodically traverse
the region, though, and may bring some lower clouds or fog.
Temperatures are expected to be above average with highs in the 50s
to lower 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through
the valid TAF period. However there is a low probability for
Patchy fog developing Tuesday morning along and east of the James
River. If fog develops, it should impact the terminals of KABR
and KATY.




SHORT TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...SD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.