Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 310529 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1229 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO SLOW DOWN EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER CHANGES
WERE NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN SD
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP BREEZY SOUTH WINDS GOING. WITH THE WARM AIR ALOFT
REMAINING OVERHEAD AND THE WINDS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO CENTRAL SD BY
12Z MONDAY...WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE EASTERN CWA
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS. HI
RES MODELS DO SHOW JUST A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THIS
FRONT AND CENTRAL SD WILL SEE HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN WHAT
WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN WARMING
ONCE AGAIN WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
80S TO LOW 90S WILL ONCE AGAIN BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONGER RANGE SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO 24
HOURS AGO. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN EARLY
SEPTEMBER CLIMO NORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF SIGNIFICANCE APPEARS TO
BE WORKING INTO THE CWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING OUT
UNTIL SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES DON`T LOOK ALL THAT GOOD.
BUT...THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME MAINTAINS
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

A WEAK FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT BUT SPEEDS WILL
DIMINISH AS WELL. CHANCES OF PRECIP AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS
SLIGHT SO MADE NO MENTION. KMBG WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
SHOWER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...PARKIN



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