Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 270534
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1234 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM.
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH
PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHC FOR SOME WEAK CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF WEAK CONVECTION AND LOW COVERAGE OF
ANY CONVECTION IS LITTLE TO NO FORCING AND ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MARGINAL MIXED LAYER CAPES.
SLIGHT CHC POPS SHOULD SUFFICE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SOUNDINGS
AND PLAN VIEW PROGS DO INDICATE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR SATURDAY
...AND ESPECIALLY SO FOR SUNDAY WHERE A MORE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW SETS UP ALONG WITH MORE CLOUDS. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THOROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY WITH NORTHEAST BREEZES.
THIS IS ALL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH DURING THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPS STILL RATHER PLEASANT THOUGH
AS OVERALL AIR MASS IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER. WILL CONTINUE
WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD STILL REMAINS THE POTENT LOW WHICH TRACKS ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS STILL AGREE FAIRLY WELL
WITH THE SFC TRACK AND TIMING AND HAVE THUS INCREASED POPS A BIT.
GOOD LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW SHOULD BRING AN AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH...WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF THIS ENTIRE SYSTEM
SLOWED DOWN A BIT AS TIME APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY SATURDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY AND WILL REMAIN BREEZY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...FOWLE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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