Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 250820
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH
STABLE SOUTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. 850MB WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...DRAWING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE
STEEPENING OF LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAINLY IN NAM
PROFILES...SUGGESTING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT MOST SOME WEAK/ISOLD
ACCAS THUNDER...SO WILL INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION.

BETTER CHANCES FOR MOISTURE EXIST THURSDAY THANKS TO A WEAK WAVE
THAT ORIGINATES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND ROUNDS THE
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. A 30-50KT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN NEBRASKA IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING OF THE LEE LOW...WITH BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS DURING
DAYTIME...CONTINUED ISENTROPIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE JET PLACEMENT
WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY. NAM PROFILES
BEGIN WITH A STRONG CAP DURING THE DAY BUT QUICKLY COOL AS THE
SURFACE LOW MIGRATES SOUTHWARDS. WHILE DECENT SPEED SHEAR EXISTS
ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER...PROFILES ARE MAINLY MOIST ADIABATIC ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD
WHEN THEY START TO DIVERGE...PROBABLY AN EFFECT DUE TO THE INGEST OF
ENERGY FROM MULTIPLE TROPICAL PACIFIC SYSTEMS INTO THE WESTERLIES.
IN ANY EVENT THEY ALL MAINTAIN FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS PATTERN OVERALL WILL SPELL A
DRY EXTENDED PERIOD ONCE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT HAS MOVED ON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE
ENTIRE FORECAST TIME SPAN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

OTHER THAN SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG...IT WILL BE VFR THROUGH
TODAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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