Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 072044
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
244 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Have continued high pops for light snow falling mainly east of ABR.
A ridge of cold Arctic high pressure will nose across far western SD
overnight. The result will be winds diminishing to mainly less than
15kts, and temperatures falling into the 0 to -10F range by daybreak
Thursday. Coupled with the winds, wind chill values will be getting
close to -25 to 30F. A Wind Chill Advisory has been posted for
Corson, Dewey, Walworth, Edmunds, Potter, and Faulk Counties, mainly
overnight into mid morning Thursday. Elsewhere, wind chill values
will at least temporarily fall into the
-15 to -23F range Thursday morning.

The main benefit to the sfc ridge building in will be a diminishing
trend to the strong winds of late. While northwest winds will remain
for the day Thursday, 10-20kts will be common. Kept temps a couple
degrees higher than guidance over the mainly snow-free locations
over our southcentral locations.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

The main forecast issue in the long term will be first snow this
weekend, and then temperatures later on. The system that enters the
picture for late Friday night and Saturday is being handled somewhat
differently by the main models. The CMC/GFS maintain a pretty good
brush with snow on especially Saturday. A decent looking H3 jet is
expected to provide uvm per right entrance region moving over the
CWA during the day. This is apparent in omega/frontogenesis progs.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF`s jet structure looks a bit different and slows
up the process a bit, and pushes its surface features further south
vs the other two models. At this point hard to pick a winner but
will have to maintain due diligence until models pull into line
with each other.

Another big difference is the predicted cold push around 144+ hours.
The ECMWF remains much more bullish with this vs the GFS/CMC. The
CMC/GFS indicate more of a glancing blow of cold air, where as the
ECMWF ushers in -25C or colder H85 air to most of the region. With
the models maintaining consistency to their respective
prognostications from the 00Z run, it`s hard again to determine the
correct answer. Some of the GEFS plumes do support the ECMWF so the
Euro model may be on to something.  Temperatures overall should be
below to much below normal for the entire forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

Strong west to northwest winds will continue through the next 12
hours, and slowly diminish late tonight into Thursday. The best
chance for snow will be at ATY, where vis has been around 5SM for


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Chill Advisory from 4 AM to noon CST Thursday for SDZ009-
     010-016-017.

     Wind Chill Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
     Thursday for SDZ003-015.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...KF



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