Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 242036
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AREA OF CONVECTION THAT AFFECTED MUCH OF THE EASTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON WAS ALMOST OUT OF THE CWA AS OF 20Z. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OF THE REGION WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A SHORTWAVE SET TO RIDE
OVER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA...THERE MAY
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
FROM MID EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. ONE HINDERING FACTOR WILL
BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE SURFACE
TROUGH SLOWLY TRACKING EASTWARD...WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT
THIS TIME PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID 5OS TO LOWER 60S.


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE HIGH BEGINS BUILDING IN ON SUNDAY
AND CENTERS ITSELF OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
TRANQUIL WEATHER TO THE AREA...WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND
BEARABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK THE SFC HIGH WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE A FEW
MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS MODELS SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A
COUPLE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING KATY AROUND 18Z BUT EXPECTING
ACTIVITY TO PUSH EAST OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THE OTHER TAF SITES LOOK TO STAY DRY TODAY. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH KABR A SHORT TIME AGO AND HAS SWITCHED
THE WIND DIRECTION TO NORTHEAST. EXPECT WIND WILL SWITCH BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY BE
VFR AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND KATY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
TODAY AS THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE AREA.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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