Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 280936
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PRECEDE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. SATELLITE AND OBS
BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOW AREAS OF STRATUS AND LIGHT SNOW. AS
THIS WHOLE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES...SO ADDED THAT MENTION TO THE
NORTHEAST CWA TONIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AGAIN...MOISTURE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT THERE COULD BE SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT...AND ASSOCIATED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE MAKES A
QUICK APPEARANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT RETURN FLOW WINDS
RETURN LATER MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. THE SNOW-FREE AREAS OF THE SOUTHWEST CWA WILL REMAIN
THE WARMEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE SNOW PACK
ERODES FURTHER EAST...AND IF THAT CAN TRANSLATE INTO EVEN WARMER
TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FEATURE FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE MEAN FLOW
PATTERN AND ITS EVOLUTION DURING THE LONG TERM. WESTERN CONUS
TROFFING EARLY IN THE PERIOD GETS EJECTED INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS...ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR PCPN. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE
DOES APPEAR TO SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT NORTH IN THIS ZONE
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...SO POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...THEY SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST...BUT THEN TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND AS
ARCTIC AIR DEPARTS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SOME LOWER VFR CIGS
AROUND 3500 TO 6000 FT MAY MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING
AGAIN THIS EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...WISE






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