Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 051140 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TO ADVECT EAST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL PLUME THAT HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE...WITH AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALSO DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA.
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN +10 TO +15C
THROUGH THE DAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION IS DEPICTED WITHIN A MAJORITY
OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA LATER THIS AM AS WELL.

BUT MOST OF THE FOCUS IS ON THIS EVENING. GIVEN 700MB TEMPERATURES
AND PROGS BEING A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA...REDUCED POPS FOR THE TODAY PERIOD. BEST JET DYNAMICS ARE
CLOSER TO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH CAMS DEVELOPING CONVECTION
BETWEEN 00 AND 06Z. ALL CAMS GENERATE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROF...ALONG AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKER. MLCAPE VALUES COULD TOP 5000 J/KG
IN THIS REGIME...THOUGH SHEAR IS ALSO MAINLY LIMITED TO THE COOL
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THIS MAKES DISCERNING THE STORM ENVIRONMENT MUDDY
AT BEST. CAMS ASSIST IN THIS THOUGH...DEPICTING ONE OR MORE
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH MAKES SINCE
GIVEN HIGH LCLS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000J/KG. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN WORDING.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...NAM PROFILES ARE WEAKLY UNSTABLE UP TO 700MB.
THUS...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNERSTORMS. WITH A NORTHERN
PLAINS LOW MOVING OUT OF MT ON THU NIGHT/FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS AHEAD OF AND WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE AS A DECENT
SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FEED AND WEAK LLJ SET UP. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION LATE SAT KEEPING POPS IN THE
FORECAST. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY STUCK WITH
SUPERBLEND POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE AN UPWARD TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON
WEDNESDAY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTED
MONTANA LAST NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD AND ND THIS
MORNING. THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KMBG BUT MODELS
ARE CURRENTLY KEEPING THEM NORTH SO HAVE NOT ADDED IN A MENTION
FOR THE TAF.

A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION
BEGINNING BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THOUGH SEVERITY
WILL DECREASE IN THE LATE EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF TSTORMS WHEN VSBY
MAY DROP TO IFR. CIGS WILL FALL TO IFR/MVFR POST FRONTAL TONIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE


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