Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 011739 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1239 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAFS.

FORECAST IS IN FINE SHAPE AND NO REASON TO MAKE MAJOR CHANGES THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROF OVERHEAD RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THIS
MORNING BUT MOST HAVE DISSIPATED SO WILL LEAVE ONLY AN ISOLATED
MENTION IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. HOWEVER...COOL
AIR ALOFT WHEN COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...ENHANCED BY A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOSS OF HEATING
WILL END POP CHANCES THIS EVENING. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
SHALLOW CU FORM IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION SETS UP FOR WEDNESDAY...WHEN COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE THE
ATMOSPHERE BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE IN THE EVENING. MUCH DEPENDS ON
INSTABILITY BASED OFF GFS ML DEWPOINTS...WHICH TOP OUT IN THE MID
60S. ANY LOWER AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL BE CAPPED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TODAY...THOUGH LIMITED BY CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING MAINLY DRY ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ALONG WITH A COOL FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE IN SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE
BREEZY/WINDY FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEHIND THE COOL
FRONT. COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND FOR
THURSDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY. THUS...EXPECT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. COULD SEE A LOT OF MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SUNDAY MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE WARMER AS
WINDS BECOME SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL EXPECTING WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON SO HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION AT ALL SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...TDK/TMT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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