Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 061824
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
124 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...AREAS OF SMOKE
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY WITH VISIBILITIES LIKELY IMPROVING
SOME AS THE MIXING LAYERS DEEPENS.

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

RAINFALL ALONG THE KPIR/KABR/KFAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE AM HOURS. A FEW HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES EAST...BUT WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS ABOVE 700MB NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME
SHALLOW CU AND SPRINKLES. SMOKE OUT OF CANADA LOOKS TO CONTINUE
UNABATED THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A FAVORABLE FETCH. STABLE CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE
WORST VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...RETURN FLOW
SETS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT IS WEAK BUT THERE MAY BE SOME
MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY WEST RIVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY WITH BETTER
MIXING CONDITIONS SETTING UP AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE LLJ THU NIGHT ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WEST
RIVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY NIGHT A BROAD SFC TROUGH
SETTLES OVER THE DAKOTAS AND LINGERS INTO SUNDAY. COUPLED WITH UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THERE COULD BE SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO BE SPOTTY
WITH LIMITED FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS /15 TO 25 KTS/ AT TIMES.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND FOG HAVE DEPARTED...HAZE/SMOKE IS STILL BEING
REPORTED OFF AND ON AT THE AIRFIELDS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
ONGOING AT KABR AND KATY. WITH BETTER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT VSBYS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AOA 5SM. LATER
TONIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS WINDS DIMINISH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG/SMOKE YET AGAIN. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS POINT...BUT DID INTRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...FOWLE


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