Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 050538 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1138 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND LOW DEW POINTS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWN A LITTLE FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND
TEMPERATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WINDS
WILL ALSO FALL OFF. THEREFORE OPTED TO NOT GO WITH A WIND CHILL
HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE BETWEEN -25 AND -35
ACROSS THE EAST. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THU
MORNING RETURN FLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN. STILL A MAJOR SPREAD IN AMBIENT
MIX DOWN TEMPS IN THE MODELS WITH THE GFS COOLER BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ON FRIDAY THAN THE ECMWF. KEPT TEMPS TRENDED MORE TOWARD
THE GFS OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS AND A WARMER FORECAST WHERE THERE
IS BARE GROUND.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CLIP THE
DAKOTAS ON FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMER AIR
ALOFT THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIP WITH THIS
EVENT...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN. FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
MODEL DIFFERENCES KEPT THE PRECIP MENTION AS ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE TREND FOR FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS
IN TACT WITH MILD AIR ALOFT FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THERE ARE TWO WEAK WAVES THAT PASS THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW BUT
BUFKIT PROFILES ONLY BRIEFLY SUGGEST SATURATION AND LIFT...WITH
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE...WARMEST
DAYS WILL BE MONDAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND A STANDARD DEVIATION OR TWO
ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...CONNELLY
AVIATION...MOHR






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