Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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060
FXUS63 KABR 280211 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
911 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 910 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at this
time.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Dry conditions are expected through the short term. The upper ridge
will settle firmly into place by late Wednesday. Some cooler air
dipping into the east with Canadian sfc high pressure Wednesday
morning will also throw a wrench in the works as some stratus may be
drawn down with the shortwave in the axis of the high. Cloud cover
will keep highs on Wednesday in the 60s across the east. Models are
likely a little too low on the highs, however, as well as a few
degrees too warm on lows.

Before the clouds move in, the main concern will be frost potential
tonight. For now, it looks like lows will fall into the upper 30s to
lower 40s tonight with some isolated cooler temps as winds become
almost calm under the high. Have some patchy frost mentioned in the
grids for a few hours toward morning.


.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

Initially both the GFS/ECMWF deterministic runs show good
consistency in placement of the upper low over the Appalachians, and
a broad area of mid level ridging across the central portion of the
country. Surface high pressure will extend along the back side of
the low to the east, encompassing the forecast area for dry
conditions through the weekend. For next week, both the GFS/ECMWF
deterministic runs indicate a longwave trof moving across the
Rockies. The GFS is about a day ahead of the ECMWF bringing a
negatively tilted shortwave around the base of the longwave trof.
There will be a few hundred J/KG MUCAPE along the frontal
passage, so will continue mention of thunder.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area tonight and through
the day Wednesday.

&&


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Parkin



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