Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 141703
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

See below for update to the aviation discussion.

The main focus for the near term continues to be the band of
rainfall associated with a deformation zone across our central
South Dakota counties. The morning update, along with latest
versions of CAMS are fairly well in line and as such have only
made minimal changes to POPs/QPF as this system continues to
develop across the area. Main take away from the update -
locations where the band has set up and under where it pivots
east, still anticipate QPF could exceed an inch. No other changes
of note.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Current water vapor imagery shows the upper level wave of concern
over the northern Rockies. At the surface, the inverted trough is
over western SD. CAM solutions have been consistent over the past
several hours in showing a large increase in showers across central
SD between 12Z and 15Z this morning, as synoptic scale lift
increases with the approaching upper trough. Overall, precipitation
seems to have slowed by a few hours, so have made the appropriate
changes in the grids. Look for rain to move into the James River
valley by early afternoon, then activity will continue pushing east
through the afternoon. Will continue with the very high chances for
precipitation today, and have increased POPs over central SD a bit
more to reflect latest trends. Also lowered high temps today as the
onset of clouds and precip later this morning will keep temps from
climbing much. Cold air advection will spread over the area this
afternoon as well, and may actually see temps slowly falling by mid
to late afternoon for many areas. This system will exit the area
later this evening, and have dry conditions in the forecast after
06Z.

The rest of the short term is quiet and features warming
temperatures. After a chilly morning Sunday with lows in the 20s and
30s, highs will rebound into the upper 50s to low 60s. Monday will
begin the real warm up as we see 850 mb temps climb into the teens
Celsius with west to southwest mixing winds. Highs will be well
above normal with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Compared to 24 hours ago, not much has changed in the 00Z GSM
deterministic solutions. The 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Table is running
between 1 to 2 standard deviations above climo normal for
temperature mid to late week. Superblend`s highs into the 70s in
some spots seems like a good starting point. It`s possible that by
the end of the period, one or more s/w`s in southwest flow aloft are
making a case for another quick shot at some light precipitation.
Otherwise, the entire period is dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

We are seeing mostly VFR conditions at current outside of MVFR
conditions at KPIR, however where a rain band has set up and as
it migrates over KABR and eventually KATY could see a period of of
MVFR CIGS/VISBY, and possibly into IFR territory for a short
period. Any MVFR conditions at KMBG should be short lived and in
the near term. Generally improving conditions are expected as the
rain departs later this afternoon for KPIR, this evening for KABR,
and overnight for KATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Dorn
AVIATION...Connelly



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