Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 232031
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
331 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER UTAH WILL
SLOWLY LIFT N-NE THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD MOISTURE INTO THIS CWA...MAINLY AFTER
9Z SUNDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD PUSH NORTHWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A POTENTIAL DRY SLOT DEVELOPING IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NAM/SREF ARE SHOWING A POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING SKIES IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHICH WOULD BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER HI-
RES MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SEVERE STORMS...BUT EITHER SOUTH OR WEST
OF THIS CWA. WITH A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...WILL JUST MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW. SPEAKING OF THUNDER...WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY EXCEPT SUNDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF THUNDER THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN CROSSING THE CWA ON MONDAY. PWATS REMAINING
FAIRLY HIGH...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD PRODUCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
AVERAGE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE POSSIBLE.

CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AND
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MIGHT SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER A BIT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIP
ONSET BUT ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN. CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN IT WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS AND THERE MAY BE A
SHARP CUT OFF TO ANY PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND OR
A BIT BELOW NORMAL DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

LOW VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR KPIR WHERE MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA. MVFR CIGS MAY OCCASIONALLY SNEAK AS FAR NORTH AS
KMBG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT MVFR CIGS WILL
BEGIN TO SPREAD TO ALL OTHER TAF SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NORTH. ONSET OF PRECIP HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE SO DID NOT
INTRODUCE ANY RAIN MENTION AT NORTHERN TAFS UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING.
VSBY MAY FALL TO IFR/MVFR IN HEAVIER SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE



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