Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 261752 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1152 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN LET TO EXPIRE AS PLANNED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST CWA.
THEREFORE ISSUED AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS FACT. ADDITIONALLY...AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS MOVING OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA...AND WILL CLIP
OUR NORTHWEST CWA...SO WENT AHEAD AND ADDED LOW POPS INTO THE
FORECAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. DID ALSO LOWER HIGH TEMPS ACROSS
THE EAST AS THEY ARE SLOW TO RISE THIS MORNING...PLUS ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER SAGGING SOUTH WITH LIMIT TEMPERATURES TODAY.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY
PCPN CHANCES AND PCPN TYPE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WITH
LIGHT SNOW ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LIGHT
SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ACROSS THIS CWA BY 15Z OR SOONER. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR COUNTIES WEST OF BROWN/SPINK. WILL KEEP THE EASTERN
PORTION GOING BASED ON WEB-CAMS ALONG I-29...WHICH SHOWS BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TODAY PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA
WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CWA BY 12Z
THURSDAY...LOWS SHOULD EASILY RANGE BETWEEN 5 BELOW...TO 10 BELOW
ZERO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING COLDER TEMPS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. HOWEVER THE SAME MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTING
INCREASING CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION PRIOR TO 12Z.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
A BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH WAA PCPN POSSIBLE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
12. MOST MODELS ARE SHOWING THE DOMINANT P-TYPE AS BEING ALL SNOW
FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PCPN BEHIND
THE MAIN WAA BAND. TYPICALLY...THE TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
FREEZING RAIN OR IP IS SHORT LIVED AND USUALLY NOT A MAIN ISSUE.
THERE IS A LOW FORECASTER CONFIDENCE FOR MIXED PCPN SO WILL
MAINTAIN ALL SNOW FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...THEN BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH
DIGS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO SOUTH DAKOTA
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD
BY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CWA
SEEING A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE GETTING
PUSHED EAST OF THE REGION AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP...WITH THE TIME
PERIOD FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY POTENTIALLY SEEING SOME PRETTY
WINDY CONDITIONS.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S SATURDAY WILL BE REPLACED BY HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH SUNDAY BEING THE COLDEST
DAY. H85 TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE ZERO ON TUESDAY...WITH 30S AND 40S
LIKELY FOR HIGHS THAT DAY. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLING IN OVER
THE WEEKEND...OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CHILLY...IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS WORKING SOUTH OUT OF
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL IMPACT THE KMBG TAF
SITE...AND VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS. AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WORKS SOUTH TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...SERR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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