Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 112146
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
346 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

FORECAST CHALLENGES INCLUDE TIMING THE END OF CURRENT LIGHT SNOW
BAND...AND POSSIBLE START OF SCATTERED FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
ALSO...TAKING A CLOSE LOOK AT WIND SPEEDS AND P-TYPE BY LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CURRENTLY...IT`S CLOUDY AND SNOWING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA ON LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES...LIKE
YESTERDAY...ARE WIDE-RANGING THIS AFTERNOON WITH READINGS RUNNING
FROM THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LIGHT SNOW FALLING
MOST OF THE DAY HAVE...JUDGING FROM AREA SURFACE VISIBILITY REPORTS
AND INTENSITY OF RADAR ECHOES...HAVE LIKELY RECEIVED UPWARDS OF AN
INCH OR TWO...PERHAPS WITH A FEW LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL.

TONIGHT/FRIDAY...SHORT RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT BY
EARLY THIS EVENING THE CURRENT AREA OF LIGHT SNOW HAS PRETTY MUCH
TAPERED OFF. HOWEVER...REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW/SCATTERED FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS A DEEPER SATURATED LAYER WORKS DOWN OUT OF EASTERN
MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT POISED TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY INTO THE CWA TONIGHT...SIGNALING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF SHALLOW COLD ARCTIC AIR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...THE SHORT TERM IS A DRY PERIOD UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN
POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW START TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY. BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING...LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR MAINLY SNOW P-
TYPE. THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT
ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A WARM /SATURATED/ LAYER AND SOME FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TAKE ON SOME BREEZY/BLUSTERY CHARACTERISTICS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THIS COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW MAY
INTRODUCE POCKETS OF POOR VISIBILITY IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. SNOW SHOULD BE
ONGOING...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-18 SUNDAY. WHILE BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WARM TEMPS AT
OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD LIMIT BLOWING SNOW. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION TO A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN THE EASTERN CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...GIVEN THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL THIS
WEEKEND...BELIEVE SUPERBLEND COULD BE TOO WARM STARTING NEXT MONDAY.

A FEW WEAK STORM SYSTEMS COULD TRACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF LACK AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND
INTENSITY SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS FROM SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

A WEAK SYSTEM CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING LOW END MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR
ALL TERMINALS. AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON
FRIDAY SHOULD PRODUCE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TERMINAL OF KATY AND
KABR. CONDITIONS AT KMBG MAY BECOME VFR TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DORN
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...SD


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