Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 040017 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
617 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

A WEAK FEATURE AT 700MB...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE THANKS TO A LACK OF SNOW COVER HAS
RESULTED IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BUT
WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MAIN
WAVE...LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST...WILL CAUSE MORE WIDESPREAD
ALBEIT LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TONIGHT.

WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE EXPECT FAVORABLE
MIXING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
ON THE ORDER OF -6 TO -12C WHICH IS COMPARABLE TO WHAT WAS MODELED
TODAY SO WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME.

THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE COMES TO US ON FRIDAY IN THE FORM
OF ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS
EXTREMELY WEAK WITH ONLY 1 TO 3 MICROBARS OF LIFT AT ANY GIVEN
TIME/LAYER. PROFILES ALSO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW WITH THIS ONE...BUT
WITH SUCH WEAK OMEGA VALUES...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH FOR
ACCUMULATIONS. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TAD WARMER AS
WELL...THOUGH SUNSHINE MAY NOT REACH EAST OF THE JAMES VALLEY UNTIL
THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND MILD AS WAA WILL BE IN
PLACE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
A BIT FASTER AND FURTHER EAST AND THEREBY PRODUCING LESS
PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW...WILL STICK WITH A SMALL POP BEGINNING
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN APPROACHES AND TRACKS ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD DRY.

WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WAA IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...DAYTIME
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FROM EAST TO WEST
ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 30S EVERYWHERE ON SUNDAY. WILL THEN SEE
JUST A SLIGHT COOLING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY AND IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 30S ON
TUESDAY. MAY SEE WARMER AIR MOVE BACK IN LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH
HIGHS BACK UP IN THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CST WED FEB 3 2016

FOR THE TIME BEING...MOST OF THE AREA IS VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
WHERE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE...PRETTY MUCH CENTERED BETWEEN KMBG...KABR...KHON AND KPIR.
BENEATH THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS...IFR CONDITIONS RESIDE.

ONCE THIS BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATES...VFR FLYING WEATHER
SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN SUB-VFR STRATUS CLOUDS
WORK IN FROM THE NORTH...ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES...PARTICULARLY
FOR THE KABR/KATY TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN


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