Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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162
FXUS63 KABR 030916
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
316 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. ALL
THATS LEFT ARE A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES OVER THE EASTERN CWA ALONG
WITH SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER. WINDS ARE STILL A BIT BREEZY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-29 SO WILL KEEP IN A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW UP THROUGH
12Z. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER QUIET TODAY WITH HIGHS
RISING INTO THE 20S EAST TO THE 30S OVER CENTRAL SD.

WILL BE WATCHING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING AN AREA OF LIFT/MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. HI RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY
SOLUTIONS ALL SHOW AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
CWA MAINLY IN THE 09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED
POPS DUE TO THE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT. DAY SHIFT MAY EVEN BE ABLE
TO INCREASE THINGS A BIT MORE IF CONSISTENCY CONTINUES. COULD SEE
ENOUGH SNOW TO GET UP TO A HALF INCH OR 1 INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST SD.

FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SET TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A BIT STRONGER WAVE HERE WITH PRECIP ONCE
AGAIN BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ALL SNOW FOR THE TIME
BEING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST WED FEB 3 2016

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL GIVE WAY TO A COOLING TREND FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS IN THE EAST TO NEAR 30 IN THE WEST
BY TUESDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TO DRAW UP SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. BY
SUNDAY AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG IN TO THE PLAINS. NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. NOT TOO MUCH
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER THE CAA AND ANY
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY WITH THE INITIAL ADVANCE SUN NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

KPIR...KMBG...KABR AND KATY WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE UP AND DOWN
RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS MAINLY AT KATY
AND WHILE 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS /WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS/
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECT PERIODS OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTION TO BE REINFORCED BY BLOWING SNOW.

LATER WEDNESDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO KABR...KMBG AND KPIR AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN



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