Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KABR 130904
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
404 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE FACING THE NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND WHAT
TEMPS WILL DO TODAY...ALONG WITH WINDS NEARING WIND ADVRY
CRITERIA.

2-3MB PRESSURE RISES PER 3HRS ARE HELPING TO KEEP WINDS UP A BIT
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOWER LAYERS REMAINING WELL MIXED. ALL
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ADVERTISING STRONG CAA REMAINING THROUGH THE
DAY...SO WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY UP AS WELL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL BUMP UP AGAINST WIND ADVRY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT NOT SURE THEY WILL STAY SOLID IN CRITERIA...SO WILL
FOREGO ANY MENTION ATTM. ALSO...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD IN
PLACE...NOT SURE THERE WILL BE MUCH RECOVERY IN THE TEMPS. HAVE
WORKED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO SHOW MAYBE A 1-3 TEMP RISE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL STEADY TEMPS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGH FOR THE DAY ALREADY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT. BASED ON COND PRES
DEFS HAVE ALSO HELD ONTO MOCLOUDY/CLOUDY SKIES A BIT LONGER
THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SCOURS OUT THE
CLOUDS.

OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM RATHER UNEVENTFUL. MONDAY
APPEARS TO BE A QUIET BUT COOL DAY AS CHILLY AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE. WAA PUSH BEGINS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT
500HPA/700HPA TROFS TO AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. GOOD WAA AHEAD OF FEATURES COULD PUSH TEMPS ACROSS THE
SCENTRAL PART OF THE CWA WARMER THAN CURRENT FCST SHOWS...BUT
GIVEN SOME MODEL UNCERTAINITY AS TO STRENGTH AND NORTHWARD PUSH OF
WAA...WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ACROSS THE FAR SW CWA.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED IS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND P-TYPE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MID-WEEK.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: LOW

FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
PERSISTS WITH THIS MODEL CYCLE. A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INDUCE A DEEPENING SFC/850MB LOW...ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT MAGNITUDE AND TRACK REMAIN IN QUESTION. THE 00Z GEM/NAM
ARE DEEPER/STRONGER WITH THE LOW WHEREAS THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ARE
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. BASED ON PERFORMANCE THIS
WINTER/SPRING...WOULD GENERALLY GIVE MORE CREDENCE TO A ECMWF/GFS
BLEND AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECTING A BAND
OF WAA PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH IMPACTS
MAINLY AFFECTING ND/MN. AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EWD ON WEDNESDAY...A
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL
SIGNATURE DROPPING SWD THRU THE CWA. THE STRENGTH OF A CORRESPONDING
BAND OF PRECIP REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...WITH QPF AMOUNTS VARYING
FROM A TENTH TO UPWARDS OF A HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID. PTYPE SHOULD
BEGIN AS RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE NORTH. A FEW MODELS ALSO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS TREND AS WELL. BOTTOM
LINE...QUITE A FEW DETAILS NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: MODERATE

IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC
MODELS HAVE TRENDED CONSIDERABLE DRIER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A
LARGE AREA OF COLD...BUT DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
BASED ON COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES DECIDED TO CUT THE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST LOCALES ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.




&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY
DISSIPATE SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE KPIR
AREA LATE...ENDING BY 15Z SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...HINTZ
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...FOWLE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.