Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 280525 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1225 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

RADAR TREND SHOWING DECREASING ECHOES THIS EVENING. THUS...HAVE
CUT BACK/REMOVED POPS FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS PART OF THE AREA AND
MAY HAVE TO CUT BACK MORE. ALSO...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS ALONG
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS...HAVE INSERTED SOME FOG IN
THE FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE CWA ARE FAIRLY HIGH...MID LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS HAS RESULTED IN LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES SHOW CLEARING SKIES IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA AND MUCH OF WESTERN IOWA. THIS AREA SHOULD SEE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING WITH SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THIS CWA IS LIMITED AND BEST
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 212.

THIS SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
COULD BE RATHER WARM AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE APPROACHING TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. MIXING WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
GREAT...SO WILL IGNORE THE WARMER GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL LEAD TO LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND WARMER TEMPS. H7 TEMPS ABOVE +10 COULD ACT TO
SUPPRESS ANY PRECIP DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
DIFFER ON ONE ISSUE...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE CORE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH AND THERE IS MUCH MORE SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY COUPLED WITH THE OCCASIONAL SFC LOW. STUCK WITH SUPERBLEND
FOR POPS FOR THE MOMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCES.

SFC TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH
DEW POINTS...EXPECT FOG TO FORM TONIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO BECOME IFR ALONG WITH SOME CEILINGS FORMING. THE FOG
WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AND REMAINING THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...PARKIN



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