Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 081953
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
253 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

RADAR REMAINS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED
ACROSS THE AREA. STILL JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO LEAVE A MENTION
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT..HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WHEN IT EXITS
TO THE EAST.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE ROCKIES THU AFTERNOON.
MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH FORCING PLACEMENT ON
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS INDICATE A
DEVELOPING LLJ AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. THE GFS
ALSO MOVES A STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA WHICH WOULD
HELP TRIGGER SOME TSTORMS. AT THE SAME TIME THE ECMWF BEGINS TO
FOCUS ANY MOISTURE AND ENERGY JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS KS WHICH WOULD KEEP THIS CWA A LITTLE DRIER AFTER 00Z. DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTIES KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CWA THROUGH THU NIGHT.





.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED REGARDING PRECIP CHANCES
EARLY ON...THEN THE POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HINTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...BUT WITH DIFFERING TIMING NOTED AMONGST THE MODELS.
GENERALLY ACCEPTED ALLBLEND POPS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GFS AND EC
SHOWING A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. BIGGER STORY IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE
DETERMINING HOW AMPLIFIED THE UPPER PATTERN GETS EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALL LONG RANGE MODELS SHOWING A TROUGH OF COOL AIR DEVELOPING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES...THEY JUST VARY A BIT IN AMPLITUDE. 12Z GFS HAS
ACTUALLY TRENDED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SHARPER EC/GEM SOLUTIONS.
DOWNWARD TRENDS IN TEMPS MAY BE IN STORE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND AREAL COVERAGE IS RATHER LOW SO WILL
LEAVE OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.



&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN






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