Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 280002 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
602 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

FLOW WEAKENS OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG THANKS TO DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS...HOWEVER WILL HAVE TO
COMPETE WITH HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD...SO WILL LEAVE OUT
MENTION DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON CONDITIONS THAT FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE BACKDOOR
FRONT WITH COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPING TOWARDS MORNING. MODELS TRY
TO ADVECT SOME STRATUS INTO THE CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES. OF GREATER IMPACT
WILL BE THE DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROF TO THE WEST. Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
SNOW...THOUGH NORTHEAST FLOW WILL EVAPORATE SNOW ON THE EASTERN
FRINGE...WHICH IS MORE OR LESS EVERYWHERE EAST RIVER.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES UNABATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS OUT OF A 1050+MB
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO KEEP US FROM DECOUPLING...RESULTING
IN LESS EXTREME LOWS BUT HIGHS THAT STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO DEGREES.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING ON TUESDAY. AS THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS
SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTRUDES FROM
CANADA...TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE TEENS AS WINDS
NEAR THE SFC SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. AFTER A BRIEF CHANCE OF
SNOW THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY AN ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AGAIN BY
SATURDAY.

WITH ALL OF THE ARCTIC AIR TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AT THE START AND END OF THE EXTENDED.


&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE IS A COLD FRONT BACK-DOORING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION. MVFR/VFR STRATUS AND SOME FLURRIES ARE ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT. SHORT-RANGE HI-RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUT PLACES THIS STRATUS
ACROSS THESE FOUR TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT MAINLY AT OR AFTER 06Z.
IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT FLURRIES WILL STILL BE OCCURRING WHEN
THE STRATUS ARRIVES...WILL ADD IN SOME FLURRIES.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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