445
FNUS73 KABR 011116
FWSABR

Spot Forecast for Little Bend WSG...State of South Dakota
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
616 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Southerly winds are forecast to develop across the
burn site today. These winds may vary a bit to the southeast at
times as well, and local effects from Lake Oahe may play a factor
here. That said, the overall general low-level wind flow today
across central South Dakota will be south to southeast. Afternoon
humidity is forecast to bottom out between 30 and 35 percent early
this afternoon, then actually increase through the remainder of
the day as clouds increase, along with the arrival of scattered
light showers.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon. Chance of
                    rain showers late in the afternoon.
CWR.................3 percent increasing to 16 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 15 mph increasing to around 16
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1200-6100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 15 mph increasing to 18 to 21 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7200 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (104200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or (moderate) to (high).

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........66  68  76  83  89  88  87  85
Weather cov.....            SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....            RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  20  30  30  30  30
Temp............53  55  59  62  62  62  62  61
RH..............44  41  36  32  36  41  44  48
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   8   10  14  15  15  16  16
20 FT wind gust.10  13  17  20  20  21  23  24
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 2.3 3.9 5.6 6.1 5.4 4.6 4.4
Smoke Dispersal.PR  PR  FR  GD  VGD GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the evening, then rain showers
                    likely late in the evening. Chance of rain
                    showers late in the evening.
CWR.................16 percent decreasing to 6 percent overnight.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 20 mph decreasing to
                    around 10 mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......600-3700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 25 mph shifting to the south 13
                    to 15 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (80300 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (7500 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or (very low) to (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........88  90  92  91  90  88  84  81  79  81  82  84
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  50  60  60  50  40  30  30  30  40  40
Temp............61  58  58  55  52  51  49  49  49  48  45  45
RH..............48  53  57  61  71  74  80  80  80  83  93  93
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..20  20  20  17  18  16  16  15  14  14  13  10
20 FT wind gust.29  30  30  24  29  25  23  24  25  24  22  21
Mix hgt (kft)...3.7 2.1 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
Smoke Dispersal.GD  FR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

$$
Forecaster...TMT
Requested by...Kevin Hoffmann
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412803.1/ABR
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Kevin.Hoffmann@state.sd.us