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000
FXAK69 PAFG 250025
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
425 PM AKDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Clear and quiet weather continues across Interior Alaska. Areas of
clouds and light rain continue along a front stretching from the
Bering Strait to Nome to Aniak. Low clouds and fog persist on the
North Slope, with blizzard conditions expected to begin from
Nuiqsut east starting Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Analysis and Model Discussion...Strong ridging continues to build
over northern Alaska while a vertically stacked low persists over
the Bering Sea. This is bringing areas of light precipitation to
the West Coast and very sunny, clear, and calm weather to the
Interior. Clouds are trapped beneath high pressure on the Arctic
Coast with very low ceilings and low visibility. The low in the
Bering Sea will shift into the Gulf of Alaska by Friday night,
bringing an end to the light precipitation on the West Coast.
Ridging will strengthen over the Interior and North Slope through
Thursday, then weaken slightly through the weekend. A building
area of surface high pressure in the Arctic will bring strong east
winds and blizzard conditions to the central and Eastern Arctic
Coast on Thursday and Friday.

Models are in good agreement on the forecast through the short
term period. By Saturday night, the ECMWF is slightly slower than
the consensus NAM/GFS/Canadian solutions in moving the low in the
Bering Sea into the Gulf of Alaska. We will use a blend of models
for the forecast package, and trend toward the GFS starting late
Saturday.

West Coast and Western Interior...A weak front remains stationary
from the Bering Strait to Nome to Aniak and is bringing areas of
clouds and light rain. Precipitation will intensify slightly
overnight tonight, but is still expected to be mostly light.
Precipitation will diminish Friday. Winds will be mainly offshore
at 15 mph or less with high temperatures in the 30s along the
coast and in the 40s inland.

Central and Eastern Interior...Very quiet and pleasant weather
continues across the area. High temperatures will trend a couple
of degrees warmer on Thursday, into the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Highs Friday through the weekend will trend back to the low 50s by
Sunday. Light southerly gap winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected
through Alaska Range passes Thursday and Friday.

North Slope and Brooks Range...Areas of fog and low clouds remain
trapped beneath high pressure along the Arctic Coast with clear
skies in the Brooks Range. Building high pressure will keep these
low clouds in place across the Arctic Coast. East winds increase
to 25-35 mph with gusts 45 to 50 mph across the Central and
Eastern Arctic Coast starting Thursday morning and continuing
through Friday evening. This will bring blizzard conditions to the
area. Temperatures will range from the upper 30s for highs along
the north side of the Brooks Range tomorrow to the single digits
below zero for lows along the Arctic Coast Saturday morning.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...Ridging will persist over
northern Alaska, bringing continued fair weather. The ridging will
be weaker than this week, so temperatures will trend back to near
or slightly below normal. Any precipitation is expected to be very
light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Relative humidities will reach critical levels
(25% or lower) Thursday and Friday across the Tanana Valley. The
lowest RHs will be near and south of Delta Junction at around 15%.
South winds through Alaska Range passes will gust to around 25 mph
early Thursday morning through Friday morning, with poor RH
recovery expected in this area Thursday night. High temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 50s near Delta Junction and in the low
to mid 60s across the rest of the middle Tanana Valley.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...River and lake ice continues to decay across the
Interior. Use extreme caution if traveling on ice.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ804-805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813-859.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ851.
&&

$$

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