Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK
706 FXAK67 PAJK 022353 AFDAJK Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 353 PM AKDT Thu May 2 2024 .SHORT TERM...Quiet weather remains across the panhandle through the remainder of the week. While some daytime q fields may develop due to localized instability during the afternoon time frame on Friday, do not expect any significant precipitation from them. The current q field which has developed across land-based areas Thursday afternoon will largely dissipate through the overnight time frame. Some elevated clouds may move overhead, but do not expect any significant impacts from these. A system entering the Gulf of AK will bring small craft conditions to many of the outer coastal waters. The inner channels will largely retain the lower wind speeds from the past few days, though ocean entrances and sea breezes will continue to prove the exceptions. Temperatures will reach into the 60s across much of the panhandle on Friday, potentially even reaching into the low 70s for a few locations - most likely along the Haines Highway or out the road in Juneau. Otherwise, the diurnal heating and cooling trend will still see temperatures fall below freezing across parts of the central and northern panhandle, and frost advisories have been issued. The primary changes to the short term forecast were lowering temperatures for Thursday night, and making minor adjustments to high temperatures on Friday. Some refinements to the wind forecast with regard to direction, and some outflow winds. .LONG TERM...Changed in store for Southeast Alaska from the very beginning of this medium & long range forecast period. A weakening front crossing the Gulf will still produce some rain Saturday along the northeast Gulf Coast. South of Cape Fairweather, conditions should remain dry, if not sunny, through the daylight hours on Saturday, but a short wave will rejuvenate the distal end of the front as it approaches the southern outer coast late Saturday night and all locations should see at least a little measurable rain on Sunday. Unsettled weather and shower activity will remain over the region through the middle of the work week. Looking well out into the long range, there are indications in long range guidance that at least part of the Panhandle may see some heavy rain Thursday and Thursday night. Deterministic and ensemble guidance are both picking up on this and it was a topic of discussion and coordination with WPC this morning. Along with the increased cloudiness, there will be a subtle reduction in daytime highs during this extended range forecast. Very little change to overnight lows until Wednesday night when they warm ever so slightly. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to continue through the next 24+ hours. Winds are fairly light with some locations seeing drainage directions in the overnight/early morning hours followed by a flip to their sea breeze direction. Otherwise, through the day Friday, prevailing wind direction will back from SE to NE (offshore) as low pressure in the distant gulf passes by. Clouds are expected to be limited to some high cirrus and potentially afternoon CU development over land again. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM AKDT Friday for AKZ317-319>321- 325. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661>664-671-672. && $$ SHORT TERM...GFS LONG TERM....Fritsch AVIATION...Ferrin Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau